The international rating agency Moody’s warned that the Argentine economy was the one that fell the most during 2020 among the G20 countries and will be the one with the lowest growth this year. In addition, the company, in its latest global report, estimated inflation of 50% for this year, similar to the monthly survey carried out by the Central Bank among consulting firms, and 40% for 2022.

According to the survey, the Argentine economy in 2020 had a fall three times greater than that of the group of countries that make up the G20 and in turn will recover to lower levels in 2021 and 2022. In the study, the rating agency highlighted that “G20 economies will grow again in 2021”, After last year’s debacle, marked by the coronavirus pandemic.

However, he pointed out that “the recovery will not be uniform” and in this regard, he specified that in 2020 the drop in GDP of the countries that make up the G20 was 3.3%, three times less than the 10% decrease corresponding to Argentina.

According to the survey, the Argentine economy in 2020 had a fall three times greater than that of the group of countries that make up the G20 and in turn will recover to lower levels in 2021 and 2022

Regarding the outlook for 2021, Moody’s set 5.3% for the group of G20 countries and 5% for Argentina, while for next year it forecasts 3.5% and 2%, respectively.

“We expect the real GDP of all G-20 countries to grow compared to last year, but some countries will take longer than others to return to full capacity,” he said.

In this sense, he highlighted the “key role” that both the “political response” of the respective governments, as well as “the management of the pandemic” will play, since beyond the possibility of mitigating the damage “the Covid-19 crisis will endure as a challenge to the world’s economies”.

Inflationary projections differ from the official ones, as the 2021 Budget was prepared based on an estimate of 29% for the entire year, But Moody’s matches the forecast of most economists and consultants, with 50% for this year and 40% for 2022.

We expect the real GDP of all G20 countries to grow compared to last year, but some countries will take longer than others to return to full capacity

He also highlighted that the United States will lead the recovery of global demand for services in 2021-22 and that European economies will take longer to reach their full capacity.

“Lingering virus fears remain the main risk of demand recovery“, He said, while warning that” the longer the crisis lasts, the greater the business risk, “especially” for small and medium-sized companies.

“As Covid-19 and its variants continue to cast a shadow over the world’s health systems and economies, the level of uncertainty and the strength of the economic recovery will vary between countries. We expect the real GDP of all G20 countries to grow compared to last year, but some will take longer than others to return to full capacity. The political response, as well as the management of the pandemic, will play a key role ”, concluded Moody’s.

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