There is an old adage that says “When March Maya, mayonnaise March”. Una manera de vaticinar que, cuando ha hecho mucho calor duree los primeros compases de la primavera, es possible que haya que volver a sacar la ropa de abrigo más adelante, en mayo, cuando lo normal es que el verano empiece a dar sus primeras señales of life.

Although popular meteorological wisdom has many sayings and proverbs, it should be kept in mind that they are not always true. Otherwise, one as useful as “April, thousand waters” would have contributed to the month when we relieve one of the most severe droughts of the last times.

Unfortunately, it was not so. During the first half of April, they barely accumulated 3 liters of water per square meter throughout Spain. It’s not just that it’s a much lower amount than usual this month, it’s that it’s extremely low. The driest April on record so far is 1995, when 23 liters per square meter fell throughout the month. We are worse than ever.

After seeing what has been seen, all hopes are pinned in the month of May. Should many be expected to fall more water than usual on these dates and therefore that the water soothes the drought? Would it help save many crops that have already failed or reduce the risk of fires, which are more extreme than ever?

a red light district

Even if making predictions with such a margin is always complex, everything indicates that a May does not happen especially rainy. Quite the contrary. According to the European Center for Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the May-June-July quarter is likely to be warmer than normal. Although it is not known what will happen to the precipitation, there is no indication that we are going to have rains intense enough to change things substantially.

What is a measurable fact that can serve as a reference is the last month of May. And that’s not exactly encouraging: 2022 was the wettest May in 70 years, and the fourth hottest since 1947. And the summer was even worse, being the hottest on record. in Spain: the temperature was 2.2 ºC above average, exceeding by far, by 0.4 ºC, what had been the hottest summer so far, that of the year 2003.

Does all this mean that we should fall into discouragement and catastrophism? Not necessarily. Perhaps the smartest thing to do is to learn from what’s going on, to take notice that climate change is already a reality and begin to put in place measures that go in a completely different direction than those that have been put in place so far. It’s time to act.

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