How many days are left in each country to return to normality?

The coronavirus pandemic has forced the entire world to look closely at the rates of development and vaccination around the world. After more than a year since the first appearance of COVID-19, the emergence of various immunizers became almost the only hope of humanity.

While countries like Israel are already advancing in its reopening plan after a successful vaccination campaign against the coronavirus, others, especially those of the so-called third world or developing world, have just started their campaigns protecting health personnel and people at risk.

In this critical context, the site TimeToHerd (time to herd, in English) has created a interactive map that helps to calculate how many days are left in each country to achieve herd immunity, generally calculated at 70%, in each country, in accordance with their current vaccination plans and rates.

That is the moment when it is estimated that the measures that have disrupted our lives in the last year can begin to relax and begin to return to how they were before the pandemic.

The interactive map reproduced here above allows change the countries and also the percentage of vaccination to be achieved for herd immunity (There are those who believe that 60% is sufficient and others stretch it to 85% of the population).

Immunity collective or herd, as it is commonly called, is the indirect protection against an infectious disease that occurs when a population is immune, either by the effect of vaccination or by immunity developed through a previous infection.

In such a case, this happens when a sufficient number of inhabitants have protection against an infection that can no longer spread, and even people who do not have immunity are indirectly protected.

Thus, by doing click on USA for example, the map shows us that 30.31% of the population has already been vaccinated with at least one dose and that 1.02% is inoculated daily. As a result, it is expected that within 78 days the country has 70% of its population vaccinated with two doses and reaches herd immunity.

Germany, the main European power, has instead had several problems with the acquisition of the vaccine and with the supply among its population.

According to updated data from the Ministry of Health, the 18.5% of the population (15.4 million people) have received at least one dose of the vaccine and only 6.4% (5.3 million) already have the full regimen.

At a vaccination rate of 0.63% of daily vaccination, Germany will achieve herd immunity in 184 days.

America Latina, meanwhile, It is currently the region most affected by the pandemic, because although in infections and deaths (26.5 million cases and more than 841,000 deaths) it is surpassed by Europe (46.9 million and one million), it is predicted that its recovery it will be slower and more difficult.

In relation to vaccination, there are also inward differences between countries. With just 9% of the population of the region immunized, Chile ranks as regional leader after administering the complete vaccine to 22% of its population, while Brazil, the second worst hit country in the world, has barely vaccinated with the two doses at 2.6%, according to the Pan American Health Organization.

Indeed, Chile has 81 days left to achieve herd immunity, considering that 33.98% of its population already has at least one dose, and that 0.89% of Chileans are vaccinated daily.

A Brazil, on the other hand, they have 235 days left to reach normality, considering the data of 7.7% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose and a daily vaccination rate of 0.53%.

It would take even longer Argentina, which with its current daily vaccination rate of 0.37%, herd immunity would only be achieved in 339 days.

Meanwhile, the United States and the Gavi Vaccine Alliance on Thursday launched a global campaign that seeks to raise at least $ 2 billion more to deliver 1.8 billion additional doses of the covid-19 vaccine to poor countries before the end of the year.

With the caveat that the global vaccine supply is “incredibly tight”, the Gavi alliance set a new funding target to achieve a more equitable distribution of serum, and announced that it has already achieved almost $ 400 million of its goal of 2 billion for this year.

“We urgently need $ 2 billion more pledges from donors, plus $ 1 billion from countries receiving support from multilateral development banks.” Gavi CEO Seth Berkley said during a virtual conference hosted by the United States.