The devastating earthquake in Turkey also shakes up politics

No one knows how many people are trapped under the rubble. When two strong earthquakes shook the south Turkey and the north of Syria On February 6, thousands of buildings collapsed, burying families in their sleep. Rescue teams scramble to dig them up before they succumb to injury, thirst or the biting cold. On February 9, more than 16,000 deaths were estimated, but the real figure could be much higher. The World Health Organization says there could be 20,000, which would be even worse than the earthquake that struck Izmit, 100 km east of Istanbul, in 1999, killing some 18,000 people. Damaged roads, complex terrain and the vast expanse of the affected area, which stretches some 450 km along the eastern Anatolian fault line, make relief efforts extremely difficult.

The parts of Syria affected by the earthquake had already suffered from a decade of war. The Syrian Despot Bashar al-Assad, is so suspicious of strangers and so indifferent to human life that he can prevent access by foreign aid agencies. Even in areas of Syria beyond their control, entry depends on roads from Turkey which are now badly damaged. Naturally, Turkey focuses on its own people. Donors must try, against all odds, that Syria is not abandoned. So far, however, the response has been too slow.

As relief efforts continue, attention will turn to politics. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has ruled Turkey for two decades, faces an election in May that was already going to be tough for him, thanks to a shaky economy and an inflation rate that has topped 50% due to his insane monetary policies. Voters will take note of his response to the earthquake and wonder why his government did not do more to prepare for such a disaster after the 1999 quake. He knows it: prosecutors have already opened investigations against two journalists for criticizing the state’s response.

It’s a dark irony. Erdogan came to power after elections in 2002. His new party, Justice and Development (ak), overthrew a system that had ruled Turkey inefficiently since the restoration of democracy in 1983. The government’s weak response era of the 1999 earthquake, followed by its mishandling of the 2001 financial crisis, contributed to feelings that a cleanup was needed, with the AK winning two-thirds of the seats in parliament. Now Erdogan faces similar circumstances: an economic crisis and a humanitarian crisis. Voters will judge you on your handling of both.

The collapse of so many buildings in Turkey – around 6,000, according to the government – will invite scrutiny. Evidence will emerge that the advice of earthquake experts was ignored and building codes were broken while corrupt or incompetent supervisors turned a blind eye. One of the features of the economic boom that made Erdogan popular during his first decade in power was the increase in construction, although most of the buildings that collapsed were constructed before he came to power. You have had two decades to prepare for a major earthquake; It’s no secret that Turkey sits on one of the most active fault lines in the world.

The popularity ratings of Erdogan and his party are approaching historic lows. He brought forward presidential and parliamentary elections from June to May last month, presumably to confuse the opposition, which has yet to coalesce around a single candidate for the top job. After the earthquake, the president declared a state of emergency in ten southern provinces, which will last three months, until almost the day before the elections. There are no doubt laudable practical reasons for this. In fact, access to Twitter was briefly restricted after people used it to criticize government response to earthquakes. Now he could postpone the election. Turkey was already entering a difficult period. Plate tectonics made it even more dangerous.

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