crown jewel

The autonomous city of Buenos Aires has become for a few hours the privileged theater of the dispute over the leadership of the main opposition coalition.

The succession of the current head of government and presidential candidate Horace Rodriguez Larreta, remains an open and uncertain process. A situation that manifests itself not only in the large number of pre-candidates on the list, but fundamentally in the deliberate absence of definition by Larreta, who evades definitions, tries to maintain a precarious internal balance and hopes that electoral decisions taken in the “historic stronghold” of the PRO helps him clear his way to the presidential candidacy.

It is obvious that the needs and times of the mayor of Buenos Aires do not necessarily coincide with those of some of his main allies, such as radicalism. The main referents of the centenary celebration in the City are already beginning to get impatient, to intensify the pressure and even to analyze alternative scenarios. Senator Martín Lousteau does not hide the discomfort that the conditioning and friction resulting from the resurgence of Mauricio Macri, and the centrality and gravitation that the former president aspires to have in the electoral process.

The absence of a definition of Larreta does not, of course, respond to a simple question of preferences or political-personal affinities, but to a strategic approach. The head of government knows that if he rushes to bless a candidate, he could not only start a war within the PRO which would end up profiting Patricia Bullrich but that would destroy any possibility of negotiation with Mauricio Macri. It is, today, the bet of the head of government: that the definition of who is the candidate who will surely keep the “jewel in the crown” allows him to “unblock” the national situation.

However, with the approach of the stage of the negotiations which precedes the formation of the lists, the tension mounts and “noise” inevitably appears in the device Together for the change in the city. A neat armed man who, due to the pragmatism and the greater openness shown by Larreta vis-à-vis his predecessor in power, has been one of his great assets in the construction of his presidential project.

Larreta for the moment is not in a hurry, and through gestures and photos with the various pre-candidates he tries to show Macri and his allies that he is ready to go to the edge of the legal deadlines to define the candidacies . The dilemma he faces is difficult to resolve.

If he opted for Jorge Macri, the man of the former president who also blessed Bullrich -his internal adversaries-, not only would he give up the possibility of having his own candidate, but he would also risk his alliance with the UCR, an understanding that projects far beyond the limits of General Paz, and that the mayor himself imagines with the incarnation of a mixed formula with a radical (Morales or Losada).

In the meantime, to inoculate himself against the criticisms of the “hawks” who accuse him of giving the City “on a platter” to radicalism, he has authorized Fernán Quirós, Soledad Acuña and Emmanuel Ferrario to tour the neighborhood as pre -candidates. The greatest expectations are placed on the current Minister of Health, who is just beginning to step up his electoral agenda, and who has not only the endorsement of Larreta but also the support of other allies, such as the Civic Coalition and the socialists. So far, however, he has failed to alter the script, as Jorge Macri is leading the measures.

On the other hand, if he were to conclude a broad agreement with the UCR, he would definitely explode his link with Macri, who has already indicated that the successor to City must leave the ranks of the Pro. , he will not tolerate any agreement which would open the road to Uspallata to Lousteau.

Every definition will almost inevitably have winners, losers, and losers. The mayor of Buenos Aires knows this, but he is also aware that not only is his main bargaining card here, but also his presidential chances. A question then arises: how to avoid openly “breaking” with Macri while maintaining the necessary alliance with radicalism that will enhance his presidential candidacy.

The alternatives are not many. The possibility that she explicitly supports Lousteau being excluded for the moment, and reluctant to give her blessing to Jorge Macri (with whom she still maintains a tense relationship), the figure of María Eugenia Vidal begins to grow as a pledge of internal negotiation . However, assuming that a candidacy from the former governor could galvanize the entire PRO, the front would still be open with the radicals. Lousteu and company have already taken note of this and, while demanding greater autonomy from the mayor, and even flirting with the possibility of the senator opting for a presidential candidacy, they are beginning to fuel a scenario that Larreta himself n does not exclude: doubling .

Splitting the election would not only allow Lousteau to compete with a PRO candidate on better terms, but would also prevent Milei’s candidacy from upsetting the balance in the Buenos Aires legislature. And, what’s more, in this scenario, Larreta might even choose to explicitly not support any of the suitors.

According to the provisions of the National Electoral Code and that of the city of Buenos Aires, Larreta has 120 days before the elections are held to make the appeal. In other words, although she is still within the legal deadlines for the conduct of the elections, she does not have much time to lose either.

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