Endless drought: the field awaits new rains which prevent production from falling further

Over the past week, major stock markets across the country and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) they reduced estimates of Argentine soybean and corn production and reactivated alarms. The projections for oilseeds are now between 41 and 34.5 million tonnes and those for cereals between 37 and 42.5 million. Recent rains have partially reversed the deterioration of crops and it is vital that there is more rain so that production does not continue to decline.

“Maintenance of current projections is subject to rains which may be relieved through the remainder of February,” he said. Martin Lopezanalyst at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA), GlobeLiveMedia. “If there is not enough rainfall to meet the demand for evapotranspiration, potential yields in the provinces of Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires could decrease further,” warned the specialist. Signage is especially important for second-tier soybean farms that have regular to poor crop status.

The truth is that the field is eagerly awaiting further near-term rainfall. Much of the soybeans and corn planted are in the middle of the yield definition stage. In the case of oilseeds, today 41% of managers are going through the critical period at the national level, but in the so-called southern and northern core regions, where water is most needed, the percentage is 70%. “In terms of timing, there are between 10 and 15 days to receive water and yield potentials do not continue to drop,” López clarified.

The “scattered rains” of the past few weeks have helped “mitigate the deterioration of the crop”, but have not allowed adequate recharge of the profiles, López said. Given the prevailing heat wave, the water condition of 61% of the soybean fields is between fair and dry, while in 48% the crop condition is between fair and poor.

in what is but, 50% is already in a critical period. According to López, the cereal “has a good water condition, but it needs a month of February with near-average rains to maintain the yield expectation in Cordoba, San Luis, the pampas there west of Buenos Aires”.

And as for early maize, the specialist underlined that the harvest which is beginning “is very bad: the first yields which have been recorded this week are at 35-45 quintals per hectare (qq/ha). The improvement in the humidity was already late. In the case of this cereal, the situation is heterogeneous: it depends on the areas. For example, the central-north of Santa Fe, the northern core and the central-eastern of Entre Ríos are the regions most affected by thermohydric stress and 76.2% of the squares present conditions between good and bad, but in the province of Córdoba, 83.3% of the frames present a state between normal and good.

The rains expected by the crops could arrive in the coming days. The heat wave affecting a large part of the country, the rainfall would occur between Sunday and Tuesday, depending on the region. “Throughout this period, there could be instability and some thunderstorms associated with a rotation of the winds to the south, which will bring relief in temperatures,” said the meteorologist, Leonardo da Benedictiswho also cautioned that this does not indicate that “it will have a great flow of water”.

As he pointed out, the precipitation could occur in Córdoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, La Pampa and Cuyo, arriving on Tuesday and even Wednesday, it could occur in the northern region of the country, how in the province of Corrientes, Misiones, Chaco, Formosa, north of Santa Fe and Santiago del Estero.

However, De Benedictis was candid in his definition that Argentina “always goes through a process of ‘abundant drought’ and added that ‘although some sectors have improved a bit’, such as La Pampa in the west of Buenos Aires and certain points in Córdoba, “in Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, northeast of Buenos Aires and Corrientes are experiencing very intense drought”.

“There are areas in which the rains have allowed the campaign to run and have helped the development of crops, but the biggest problem is that they come at a time when crops have evolved and are at a level that generated this potential loss. . Now what these recent rains have helped is to stop this deterioration in the places where the water has reached, ”said the specialist.

“Over the next six or seven weeks, the level of precipitation tends to improve” (De Benedictis)

For the medium term, De Benedictis predicted for the next six or seven weeks that there is “a tendency for the level of precipitation to improve in general, but it comes very late. We expect a neutral scenario, where we would not be under the influence of a La Niña or a Niño. This does not guarantee a large flow of water, but it tends to normalize the precipitation.”

For the Agricultural Foundation for the Development of Argentina (FADA), the sector’s exports could fall by around $13,000 million compared to last year, although the institution’s chief economist, David Miazzopredicts that this amount can climb up to 15,000 million dollars.

This significant drop in foreign exchange earnings will have a full impact on the Argentine economy. “If in 2022 with a record of agricultural exports and at the country level we had exchange rate pressures and the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) only reached the end of the year thanks to two editions of the soybean dollar , this year, up to $15 trillion could be missing, exchange rate pressures could be much more present throughout the year,” Miazzo told GlobeLiveMedia.

This will make it “very difficult for the BCRA to maintain stabilized international reserves. The loss of reserves may be interrupted in May, June and July, but in August it will happen again, as the seasoning of elections is added, where many producers will most likely decide to delay the pace of soybean sales while waiting for a change of government.

He also predicted that the drought “will take between two and three points of GDP, so the economy can easily go into recession. We were already expecting only 1% growth and taking two or three points from it could enter a recession”, even as the state tax collection for export duties on soybeans alone is reduced by $ 2,000 million .

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