Elections 2023: the networks anticipate a virulent campaign

For those who have noticed in recent months that political dialogue on social media has become increasingly negative, they weren’t wrong.

Moreover, if the perception is that of a political debate which is even becoming more and more negative, the forecasts for the coming months show that the election year may become even more violent, at least political discourse.

After a year with meager positive (but finally positive) numbers, 2022 said goodbye with the certainty that the Argentine political discussion would become increasingly charged with hatred and cross-attacks between theirs and others, from a side and side of the crack. .

The digital reputation indicator that we have developed based on the weighting of positive and negative mentions of the main Argentinian politicians on Twitter has left favorable balance sheets which suddenly they were discontinued in December 2022.

That month, the balance between positive mentions and management criticism closed at a negative 3.3%, breaking the positive logic recorded since the middle of last year.

Worse still, during the month of January of the new year the balance of mentions was again negative and a little more: 4.15 percent.

The prediction for this current month of February anticipates a further drop to 5.65%, March to 7.2% and April to more than minus 9%.

Basing our crude analysis on negativity on social media, let’s say that if rejection on political networks is increasing, it’s because more and more leaders are falling into the clutches of hate speech, and with more values. more red.

For example, during the month of January, eleven of the 20 leaders analyzed ended the month with a negative balance on their Twitter profiles. In addition, seven of the 11 leaders with poor reputations were opposition figures.

The reasons for this negative prominence of the opposition leadership in the digital reputation ranking are to be found in the internal stronghold that Juntos por el Cambio lives, fueled by a constant crossfire between them.

The leaders particularly attacked in the networks are the former governor, María Eugenia Vidal, the candidate for the post of governor, Diego Santilli, and the head of government of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.

In other words, the “doves” of the macrismo suffer the harassment of the hard sectors (“hawks”) of the opposition space, which encourage the candidacy of the president of the Pro, Patricia Bullrich, and aspire to the return to power of Mauricio Macri . himself.

The two leaders, for example, are among those with the best digital reputation recorded during the month of January. Macri achieved 41.58% positive and Bullrich 37.93%.

Within the pro-government camp, the negativity figures in January mainly affected the Minister of Security of the province of Buenos Aires, Sergio Berni (-49.77%), President Alberto Fernández (-12.36%) and Economy Minister Sergio Massa. (-9.3%).

The one who reached positive values ​​in the jump of mentions for and against was the vice-president, Cristina Kirchner.

The Kirchnerist leader obtained a discreet positive of 6.15% on average last month, but exceeded expectations.

The reasons for Cristina’s favorable differential over Alberto Fernández must be sought in their own digital activism.

Adherents of hardline Christianity enthusiastically wave CFK’s candidacy to the rhythm of posts with hashtags such as #Cristina2023, #RompamosLaProscripcion and #CFK2023.

At the same time, the president hardly arouses support via the digital hashtags #TodosJuntos or #PrimeroLaGente, hashtags clearly not very passionate about the presidential figure and linked more to government management than to Fernández’s future at Casa Rosada.

Continuing the analysis of political discourse through the digital labels that serve to both defend and attack rivals, January’s leadership dialogue dropped some clues as to where the verbal struggle might advance in a key electoral.

#TheWorstGovernmentInHistory, #CFKCondemned and #VanArun They disseminated hateful publications against the main leaders of the ruling party, in particular Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner.

Meanwhile, #MacriMufa, #NoVasASerPresidente and #NoHayMacristaHonesto were the hashtags with the most negative impact in the conversation about the most popular opposition leaders.

The opposition dialogue had a particular anchoring in the central region of the country, with particular interest in antiK publications in the province of Santa Fe, Neuquén and CABA.

For its part, the questioning of the opposition by Kirchnerism aroused curiosity in Chubut, Jujuy and in the province of Buenos Aires.

The geolocated analysis of the pairing of official and opposition publications shows how the center of the country continues to be the battleground of political activism, with a growing role in the provinces of Patagonia, the Cuyo region and the North -West Argentina.

Milei, leader among presidential candidates, but with competitors on the prowl

Beyond the positive and negative values, Javier Milei closed the month of January with a strong performance in the digital leadership of networks and the Web, in a context of strong parity with its rivals.

Leaving aside Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández, the libertarian economist reaches 18.3% of the limelight at the start of 2023.

He is followed by an ascendant leader of the government of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, with 17.7% and the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, almost side by side with 17.3%.

The batch of presidential candidates with the best returns is closed by the president of the Pro, Patricia Bullrich with 15.4%.

The rest of the Casa Rosada candidates constitute a group of leaders with much lower numerical leadership values.

This lot was led in January by the Minister of the Interior, “Wado” de Pedro, with 6.6%, the other libertarian José Luis Espert with 5.6% and the governor of Jujuy, Gerardo Morales, with 4, 6%

The very meager performance of radical leader Facundo Manes caught the eye during the January analysis.

The neuroscientist achieved a paltry 2.6% digital leadership, just above FIT leaders Myriam Bregman and Nicolás del Caño.

From another perspective of analysis, the preponderant role in social networks and the Web of the main national electoral fronts crystallizes a little more the pre-electoral panorama seen from the digital world.

Together for Change managed to regain leadership in January, to retain 52.6% of the leading role of the month in both network mentions and online queries.

For its part, the Frente de Todos broke the upward curve that it maintained until December, to fall in January to 32.5% leadership.

With values ​​that have not yet risen, La Libertad Avanza slowed its growth between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 to reach 12.2% of the leading role.

Analyzing the digital leadership values ​​of the last 6 months, the macrismo averages 46%.

For its part, the Frente de Todos shows an average discreet leadership of 33.8%, a value that places it in figures well below the performance obtained in 2019 at the polls, although a little closer to the result of 2015, when Kirchnerism lost the election to the opposition Changeons front.