Global coal consumption will reach an all-time high in 2022 and remain at similar levels for years to come if efforts are not redoubled to move to a low-carbon economy, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) published in on Friday.
High gas prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent supply disruptions have led some countries to turn to relatively cheaper coal this year.
Heat waves and droughts in some regions have also triggered electricity demand and reduced hydropower, while nuclear generation has also been very weak, especially in Europe, where France has had to shut down nuclear reactors for maintenance.
The IEA annual report on coal forecasts global coal use to rise 1.2% this year, surpassing 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time, on top of the previous record set in 2013.
It also predicts that coal consumption will remain at that level through 2025, as declines in more developed markets are offset by continued strong demand in emerging Asia.
This means that coal will remain by far the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in the global energy system.
The largest increase in demand for coal is expected in India, with 7%, followed by the European Union, with 6%, and China, with 0.4%.
“The world is about to reach a peak in the use of fossil fuels, and coal will be the first to decline, but we are not there yet,” said Keisuke Sadamori, director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA.
Demand for coal in Europe has increased because there has been a switch from gas to coal due to high gas prices, and also because Russian gas has dropped sharply.
However, by 2025 European coal demand is expected to fall below 2022 levels, according to the report.
Global electricity production from coal will reach a new record of about 10.3 terawatt hours this year, while coal production will increase by 5.4%, to about 8.3 billion tons, also an all-time high.
Production is expected to peak next year, but by 2025 it should fall below 2022 levels.
The three largest coal producers – China, India and Indonesia – will break production records this year, but despite high prices and sizable margins for coal producers, there are no signs of increased investment in export projects. of coal.
According to the report, this reflects the caution of investors and mining companies about the prospects for coal in the medium and long term.