While there has been simmering tension within the Democratic Party over making a generational change, Biden’s fate seems inextricably linked to Donald Trump, whom he defeated in 2020 and has seen as a threat to American democracy.
The former president has already declared his own 2024 campaign and Biden has made it clear in private that he thinks he might be the only Democrat who could beat Trump again. And while Pelosi had an established line of succession in the House, those close to Biden say the field for following him is much more shaky.
“Why would I go out now?” said presidential historian Douglas Brinkley. “He does not have a clear successor and what matters here is Trump. Joe Biden is seen as the killer of Donald Trump and many Democrats believe he can do it again.”
In Washington, old age has become the norm.
Biden is the nation’s first octogenarian president and the oldest man to hold the office. And he’s got plenty of senior peers populating the corridors of power: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer He is 71 years old, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell He is 80 years old and is the House Majority Leader Hoyer Walls is 83, just to name a few. Furthermore, Trump himself is 76 years old.
After Pelosi’s announcement, Hoyer also decided she would step down from her leadership role, clearing the way for a slate of lawmakers decades younger. Pelosi’s expected successor as Democratic leader will be the 52-year-old representative. hakeem jeffries from New York
But Pelosi is withdrawing as her party becomes a minority. Biden is all but certain to remain the standard-bearer for his party in 2024 and would run for re-election thanks to an enviable legislative record and midterm results that exceeded Democratic expectations.
“The midterm elections reiterated the fact that competent and effective government is a priority for most voters, above anything else,” said Adrienne Elrod, a Democratic strategist who worked on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
In 2020, Biden aides knew the candidate’s age was an issue and briefly considered a promise to serve just one term. That was ruled out. But Biden offered himself as a “bridge” to the younger Democrats.
“I see myself as a transition candidate,” he said during an online fundraiser, suggesting he would help introduce the next generation of leaders. “You have to have more people on the bench who are ready to go in: ‘Put me in the coaching job, I’m ready to play.’ Well, there are a lot of people who are ready to play, women and men.”
But getting away from the White House is more difficult once it becomes home. And Biden has spent almost half of his life seeking office, since he launched his first presidential campaign in 1988.
There are many reasons those around Biden believe he will run again: He presided over a series of legislative victories, including a bipartisan infrastructure bill and measures that enshrined Democratic climate change and health care priorities; he continues to spearhead a Western response to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine; and Democrats this month held on to the Senate and stemmed a Republican wave in the House.
And then there is Trump. Two years ago, the party rallied around Biden as a safe option, a candidate who didn’t generate the most excitement but believed he had the best chance of beating Trump, especially when a pandemic struck. And even as polls now show many in the party eager for him to step aside, many key Democrats believe Biden should stay the course.
“He wasn’t my first or second choice for president, but I am a convert,” the representative said. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash), he recently told POLITICO. “I never thought he would say this, but I think he should run for another term and finish this agenda that we put forward.”
Emblematic of the new vanguard in the House, Jeffries also offered his endorsement: “I am hopeful that President Biden will seek re-election and I look forward to supporting him.”
If Biden were to choose not to run, few in Washington believe the field would clear for Vice President Kamala Harris, and that could set up a tough primary battle. But some Democrats welcome change, even if it’s messy.
Ohio Senate candidate Tim Ryan, who sidestepped the president during campaign events this year, explicitly called on Biden in recent months to step aside in the name of “generational change.” Other Democrats are less confident in Biden’s chances against Republicans other than Trump.
But rarely do parties face a sitting president, and when they do, the ensuing major challenges, such as Ronald Reagan against Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ted Kennedy against Jimmy Carter four years later, almost always undermine the incumbent. It is also rare for presidents to drop a re-election bid, and those who do have generally been forced to do so by external crises, such as Harry Truman for the Cold War/Korean War and Lyndon Johnson for the Vietnam War.
While Biden’s poll numbers are middling, he leads Trump in what-if matchups. The threat posed by Trump hangs over the Biden family; First lady Jill Biden, who is said to be enthusiastic about a re-election bid, will play a key role in the discussions. Although the aides are taking steps to prepare for another race, a final decision on a campaign likely won’t be made for months.
Talk of Biden’s age has been pervasive throughout the Beltway since he signaled he would launch his third presidential campaign in 2019. He had visibly aged since his time as vice president. His stride had also shortened and slowed, not helped by the broken foot he sustained while playing with one of his dogs during transition. He has always been prone to verbal gaffes and tires more easily now, according to those close to him.
Although he is known for his own rhetorical errors, Trump already tried to make an issue of Biden’s age in their first meeting, calling his opponent “Sleepy Joe” and claiming he was no longer with him, to little impact. The Republican attacks have only continued, with a persistent drumbeat that Biden is unfit for office.
Biden’s advisers believe the 2020 race had to do with the current president’s age (he would be 86 when he left office if he served a second full term) and that voters are more comfortable with older people in positions of power. Whether in politics or business. White House officials said he would undergo a routine physical in the coming months.
In his most recent exam, conducted last November, his doctor stated that Biden “continues to be fit for duty and fully performs all of his responsibilities without waivers or accommodations.”