After several weeks of yo-yoing in a price zone of indecision, Bitcoin (BTC) would be on the way out. And this, to the delight of cryptocurrency investors. But these should not ignite. Because, as long as the technical conditions are not fully met, we are not immune to a grain of sand that could challenge the excellent price dynamics of BTC since mid-March.
Due to its high correlation to risk aversion, recent technical analysis of the king of cryptos has shown us week-to-week divergences in opinion. That’s why I strongly recommend a dose of humility about a possible major trend reversal. Even within the framework of the crossing of the resistance of $46,000, which between the lines, is not necessarily a harbinger of a real beginning of an upturn.
BITCOIN – POSSIBLE EXIT FROM KUMO FROM ABOVE IN WEEKLY UNITS
Although the current weekly candle leaves something to be desired, it does not compromise the two previous ones that tamed the Tenkan and the resistance at $41,000 , which in the recent past represents the neck line of the shoulder-head- shoulder (ETE). Subsequently, this caused a start to break out of its price zone of indecision between the support at $34,000-35,000 and the resistance at $46,000.
While the price of Bitcoin has just confirmed the crossing of $46,000 , the path now opens towards the next resistance of $51,000-52,000, and also its exit from the Kumo (cloud) from above. At the same time, the Chikou Span, an important pillar of Ichimoku , would calmly distance itself from the cloud.
Nevertheless, as I mentioned last week, the evolution of the weekly Kijun would be of a nature to worry us over the next few weeks. It is enough to see that it has not moved one iota since the week of January 24th. And when this technical situation manifests itself after a certain time, the Kijun could act as resistance. In our case, it is doubly one due to its proximity to the resistance at $51,000-52,000.
BITCOIN – FEAR BELOW $46,000, BUT MORE FEAR THAN HARM
Thursday’s session temporarily caused discord among some investors. Indeed, Bitcoin prices suddenly fell below $46,000 following Russia’s threat to cut gas if Europe refused to pay in rubles. But at the latest information, the two parties seem to have found a compromise . This explains the crypto king’s jump above this major level half an hour into Friday’s session at the Paris Bourse.
This false foray below the price zone of indecision had the merit of testing two curves of the Ichimoku. First, Bitcoin was able to rely on the Tenkan , and therefore slow its fall. Secondly, the Chikou Span bounced off the resistance at $46,000 to probably validate a throwback , ie a rebound off a former resistance that now becomes support, before continuing its uptrend.
Unless the situation reverses during the weekend, these favorable technical signals in daily units would indeed confirm the beautiful respective dynamics of the prices of BTC and the Chikou Span above the Kumo. Enough to encourage a continuation of the rebound towards the resistance of $51,000-52,000.
In summary, the confirmation of crossing the resistance of $46,000 represents a positive sign. However, the safety margin on the upside above this major level does not allow us to feel reassured. Hence my caution in the event of a resurgence of current risks on the financial markets.
On the other hand, once this obstacle has been definitively lifted, I would temper the hopes of a new bull run. On the one hand, the next resistance of $51,000-52,000 is coming very quickly. And on the other hand, the significant difference between the Kijun and the Tenkan to the detriment of the second in weekly units, would lead me to think that the rebound we are witnessing would be synonymous with a last stand. This is all the more so as the Kijun on this same time unit is practically at the same level as the resistance of $51,000-52,000 and the upper limit of the Kumo, the Senkou Span A (SSA).