The ban is not convincing and Cristina is preparing to be a candidate for the post of senator

The unusual and old-fashioned theory of banning Christina convinced no one. Polls conducted by the vice president’s closest associates indicate without hesitation that even the religious fanatics of the ultras kirchnerism They are convinced of the strategy that tried to associate him with Juan Domingo Perón. It didn’t help much either that the Chief of Staff, Agustin Rossiand the Minister of Security, Hannibal Fernandezrelativizes the myth of proscription in public.

The truth is that Cristina Kirchner was sentenced last December to six years in prison for committing fraud against the state in the Highway case. Kirchnerism provided visionary and entrepreneur Lázaro Báez with 86% of the public works in Santa Cruz and made him a millionaire at the same rate as the Kirchners grew rich. But the vice-president can be a candidate for anything she wants until the day when the Chamber of Cassation and the Supreme Court confirm her sentence. And that could only happen in two years. The only truth is reality, Perón said.

As distracted Kirchnerists and activists who follow the guidelines without ever subjecting them to honest assessment get drunk on the chill gas of prohibition, the more realistic leaders have begun to work on the next goal. Cristina is already preparing for the inevitable candidacy for the post of senator of the province of Buenos Aires. To survive politically, Kirchnerism needs the savings banks of Buenos Aires.

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And the candidacy for the post of governor of Axel Kicilloff alone is not enough to win. They need Cristina’s name to stand out on the ballot, in larger letters than the rest of the candidates. “If she’s not on the ballot, it will cost a lot more to get people to vote and to get prosecutors on Election Day,” admits a worried camper.

The other factor driving Cristina’s candidacy for the post of senator is pressure from the mayors of the suburbs of Buenos Aires. Most of them, even those who like her the least, admit that with the vice president on the ballot, the electoral floor from which they must start is notoriously higher. And no one wants to risk defeat in each of their districts in an election that, for the Frente de Todos, is deteriorating.

The price that the barons of Greater Buenos Aires must pay is to flood the lists of legislative candidates (national provincial deputies and senators, municipal councilors) with names from La Cámpora or Kirchneristes who come with Cristina’s blessing. “It’s a high cost, excessively high, but losing is much worse”, calculates one of these mayors.

Kirchneristas, camporistas and also supporters of Sergio Massa in the provinces regret the angry and frantic speech that Cristina gave on December 6, as soon as she learned that she was sentenced to six years in prison. It is that the vice-president not only loudly criticized the decision of the judges of the oral Federal Court 2. She also planned that she was not going to be “a candidate for anything”.

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Especially because, from now on, the campaign strategists who work with Cristina must find the arguments to counter the slippages of this day of nervousness and lack of political control. With the vice president on the campaign trail, they’ll have to find a way to cover up these angry mistakes.

1.- Cristina said that she would not be a candidate “for anything” because the judicial condemnation was a mechanism to proscribe her.

2.- She explained, in a mocking tone that quickly turned her into a meme on social networks, that she was not going to allow her opponents to call her “the doomed candidate…”.

3.- She also declared that day that she would not accept being attacked in the campaign debates by declaring that she was a candidate in the elections just to have parliamentary privileges to protect her from the investigations of crimes complex.

4.- At that time he had also dismissed criticism for the alleged claim to keep control of the Senate. She could expand that realm if she’s elected a senator (she’d get there without major problems), or if she locates one of her trusted people as a running mate and wins, a guess. increasingly questioned. .

Cristina, as well as Máximo Kirchner, have good relations with Sergio Massa, whom the vice-president considers to be the only leader of the Frente de Todos capable of giving battle to the opposition candidates and fighting for the presidency. Ultra-Kirchnerian senator Anabel Fernández Sagasti is among the candidates with the best chances in a formula with the minister.

The alternative candidate to Massa that Cristina does not rule out could be Daniel Scioli, currently Argentina’s ambassador to Brasilia. Not only because he had a very decent defeat in 2015 (he lost on the ballot by 2.5% against Mauricio Macri), but because he would also have the endorsement of Alberto Fernández himself.

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But the president also has his own myths and fantasies. Just as Cristina imagines formulas in which Sergio Massa or Daniel Scioli can try for a presidential opportunity, he also believes he can stand for re-election in October. “With Alberto as a candidate, we run the risk that Milei (Javier) grows too much and ends up eliminating us from the ballot,” Cristina told her supporters. He will do everything possible to force Alberto to leave PASO. It is not easy to convince someone whose only strength at the moment is to be able to personally sign the decrees. “I will come down when they have a better one than me”, is the provocative message that returns from Casa Rosada.

Nor is it easy to reach an electoral agreement with Massa as a possible candidate. This Tuesday, the Minister of the Economy will be confronted with the inflation rate for the month of February (estimated at a few tenths above 6%). And what’s more, he will become the first chief financial officer to have to deal with annual inflation in more than three digits since 1991.

To this grim picture of the cost of living, Massa must add the complexity of a global financial organization. The International Monetary Fund’s intransigence prevents the organization from relaxing the Central Bank’s monetary reserve targets. The agreement with the IMF indicated that Argentina was to maintain compliance with the Central Bank’s reserve targets and fiscal deficit reduction targets. By the end of this month, it should have around US$7.8 billion. It is more than clear that he will not get them.

In Washington, where Deputy Minister Gabriel Rubinstein and Leonardo Madcur’s secretary traveled and stayed, there is currently no announcement from the IMF. An economist who works with Massa told the minister that the difficulty for the IMF to approve this waiver (sorry) now seems to be linked to the government saying how and where it will cut spending to reduce the budget deficit. Otherwise, there will be no possible flexibility with the Central Bank reserves.

Anger over Argentina’s serial non-compliance with the IMF is not confined to the organization’s leadership alone. The shareholders (the countries that make it up and especially the United States) have also been auditing Argentina’s economic variables for a few days. The sanction of the pension moratorium in Congress was assessed to the Monetary Fund as a message from the government that it has no intention of reducing the budget deficit in any way.

Alarm signals are multiplying in Kirchnerism. Opinion polls indicate that the possible candidacies of Wado de Pedro or Máximo Kirchner are not at all competitive. As soon as Axel Kicillof emerges from the general collapse of space and becomes an alternative in case he is accompanied on the ballot with her as a candidate for the post of senator.

The objective of putting Kicillof and Cristina on the same ticket is to strengthen the Frente de Todos ticket. They believe that the election of the governor of Buenos Aires is going to be fierce, and that the presence of Cristina can help them to retain the post of governor where they should face the deputy Diego Santilli (Horacio Rodríguez Larreta does not prevail in the conflict presidential) or some of the candidates that can see advantages if the one who triumphs in the primaries of Patricia Bullrich (there the possibilities of mayor Néstor Grindetti, Joaquín de la Torre or Javier Iguacel grow, although there are those who believe that Macri can impose the figure of Cristian Ritondo on Bullrich).

These are the days when Cristina begins to lower the veils of the failed attempt to think of herself as an outlaw. And go back to the sources. As in 2017, he would again be at the top of the electoral list. In this case, the list of senators from the province of Buenos Aires.

Last Friday, Cristina gave a long lecture to respond to the judges who sentenced her. At the National University of Río Negro, he tried to regain centrality. This role which, until some time ago, paralyzed the country. This effect no longer exists. Interest in his tribulations waned and the power of judicial judgment did the rest.

Peronism, with a Stockholm syndrome that has lasted for twenty years, still does not dare to confront Cristina Kirchner. Almost no trace of the revival that Cordoba governor Juan Schiaretti seems to want to lead, along with other leaders who have outstanding scores with the vice president.

Little, too little to change a course that is leaking everywhere. The only certainty for the Front of All is Cristina. And Peronism will put him back on the ballot because he has no more attractive options.

Because it’s a drifting ship and it desperately needs a signal that will allow it to survive.

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