How can the war end?

War in Ukraine sparked by Russian invasion enters second year with no clear sign in sight that it will end soon. Russia has lost half of the territory it had conquered since February 24, 2022 and the difficulties it shows at the front in controlling a small town like Vuhledar or advancing on the defenses of Bakhmut, They do not plan new and powerful offensives. Still, with fresh troops and if China supplies them with new weapons, the Russian generals signaled they would try again. a pincer movement from the northeast, entering the border near the city of Sumy – above the city of Kharkiv, the second largest in the country, one of the areas they had conquered and lost. A move that would cost the Kremlin dearly in all respects, which has already a record thousand victims per day.

For their part, the Ukrainian forces are waiting to concentrate a force of around 100 Leopard 1 and 2 tanks, who begin to arrive from various European countries and launch an offensive in the south to retake the Zaporizhzhia atomic power plant and take control of the city of Melitopol. Here the goal is cut the Russian supply line coming from the occupied Crimean peninsula.

Everything indicates that the war will consume all of this year 2023 and could exceed its second anniversary. Although it should be kept in mind that war predictions fail as much or more than weather predictions. And this is the main coincidence of analysts who have taken stock of what has happened this first year and given signs of what could happen in the next 12 months. This was stated by those who took part this week in the symposium organized by the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center. Fiona’s Hill, the former director of European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council, said the United States and the West “are still trapped in a historical narrative about Ukraine created by Putin and blinding much of his people. “. The Russian leader presented the conflict as an existential threat to his nation and called it “The Third Great Patriotic War”, a reference to the Napoleonic invasions in the 1800s and the Nazi German invasions of the 1940s. “There should be a major communication campaign to make the Russians understand that what Putin is telling them is a huge lie. If this battle is won, the war is won.”Hill added.

Alexandra Varouxexecutive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard, believes that the economic situation must also be closely watched to determine the course of the war. Both countries have suffered a major economic decline. 40% of Ukraine’s physical infrastructure was destroyedwhile gross domestic product (GDP) fell 33%. The Russian Ministry of Finance reports that annual revenue fell 35% in 2022while expenses increased by 59%. “We have to fight a lot more in the economic sphere, in the sanctions. We have to work and disconnect Russia from its Chinese and Iranian allies,” Vacroux said.

Retired United States Army Lieutenant General Marc Hertling, believes that the biggest challenge for the Ukrainian army will be to quickly integrate all the different weapons systems they receive from Western allies. “Spring (between March and June) it will be a race between Russian mobilization and the transformation of the Ukrainian army. Putin took an active decision to mobilize forces on the front lines with the aim of regaining ground and gaining additional leverage to draw Ukraine into future negotiations,” he explained. in the coming weeks, Hertling expects Russia to increase missile attacks and its air and naval forces to continue attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. “Russian forces are once again focusing on Belarus and could use its territory as an entry point for a new offensive in the north”he claimed.

And the former nuclear counterterrorism officer of the CIA and now Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, aimed at the nuclear threat. “The biggest worry is that Putin will get stuck and realize that his military is no longer capable of taking back what he considers Russian territory. It is a condition where I think Vladimir Putin will use tactical nukessaid Mowatt-Larssen. “And that’s what the United States needs to think about. We must have a plan to deter Putin from using his nuclear warheads.”.

In other areas, there were also discussions about angles that do not appear so visible when analyzing this war and its prospects. It happened in a series of short essays published by the British newspaper The Guardian. Over there, Emma Ashfordresearcher of Stimson Center from Washington and author of “Oil, the State and War”, underlined that the internal situation of the countries which support Ukraine must be taken into account. “Public discontent in the United States and parts of Europe will grow as the war drags on., while the supply of advanced weapons and training to Ukraine is slow to show effects on the battlefield,” he says. “The growing discontent is reflected in American public opinion polls: 40% of Republicans think the United States is “doing too much” in the conflict. The war is likely to become a political football in the early stages of the 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign, especially for Republican presidential candidates. In short, time is probably not on Ukraine’s side, at least when it comes to the mismatch between political time horizons and military gains,” Ashford wrote.

The well-known historian Timothy Garton Ash Since Oxford University is more optimistic. “After spending a few weeks in Kyiv, I am very clear that this spring and summer (between March and August) can be decisive for the Ukrainian victory“, writes. “At the moment, Russia continues to have the strategic initiative in the east, while Ukraine is dangerously short of ammunition for its post-Soviet weaponry. But a Ukrainian counter-offensive planned for this spring, with new brigades equipped and trained in the west, could turn the tide”. And Garton Ash analyzes that “if Ukrainian forces manage to advance south from the Zaporizhzhia region to the Sea of ​​Azov, they could split the Russian occupation forces in two and potentially threaten occupied Crimea. Obviously, this option carries a greater risk, but also a greater possibility of achieving peace. This, and not a long war in the East, is the best chance for Ukraine to put itself in a position to negotiate by force.”.

The historian also emphasizes the times of the actions. “As I heard Ukrainian leaders point out repeatedly, both in Kyiv and at the Munich security conference last weekend, speed is essential“says Garton Ash. “If Western military and economic support comes too slowly, time will be on Vladimir Putin’s side. It’s one of the few things the UK government has done well in recent times. But this sense of urgency and a real commitment to Ukrainian victory must be shared by both the United States and the other major European powers. Pushing for increased support for Ukraine’s rapid takeover of large parts of its territory is not just a moral or emotional argument. It is a strategic understanding that Ukrainian battlefield victories are prerequisite for lasting peace”.

This seems to be the biggest coincidence among analysts: peace will be found on the battlefield. There will be no negotiating table as long as each party’s current positions and demands are maintained. Putin wants to keep at least the Donbass region and the Crimean peninsula. Zelensky has already made it clear that he is unwilling to cede even an inch of his country’s territory. But resolution on the battlefield will have to be quick. Time is on Putin’s side. Soon the internal attrition between Americans and Europeans will begin. The allies will have to decide if and when they will deliver the weapons necessary for Ukraine to complete the expulsion of the Russian invaders from its territory.

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