Financial day: the BCRA continues to sell and stocks are the refuge against inflation

2023 began without the decisive contribution of the soybean dollar, a rising dollar pattern for soybean exports that allowed the Central Bank to accumulate nearly $5,000 million during the months of September and December.

In fact, it was these market-settled agricultural currencies in the final stretch of last year that allowed the Central Bank to end last year with net purchases. And at the end of the trade balance with a positive result.

After the effect of bringing exports forward to take advantage of a more advantageous exchange rate, which effectively amounted to a temporary removal of levies for the sector, agricultural sales in 2023 are among the lowest on record. And this is bad news for the Central Bank, which marks a negative net balance for its foreign exchange participation of 708 million USD so far this year.

It is largest negative balance for the entity in 20 years, since 2003, when it recorded net sales of $1,629 million in January of the same year, which could not be offset by purchases of $634 million in February. This negative balance for the BCRA of almost 1,000 million dollars due to its participation in foreign currencies during the first two months of 2003 could be overcome this year if the entity extends its sales during the eight operating cycles which remain for the current month.

The BCRA accumulates a sell balance in the foreign exchange market of USD 516 million in February, a worrying trend due to the loss of reserves also following the purchase of dollar bonds carried out by the Treasury on the secondary market.

The last 15 working wheelssince last January 25 -inclusive-, the BCRA sales balance accumulated 799 million USD at MULC. For this reason, analysts do not rule out that the government will soon introduce an incentive for agricultural exports by offering a preferential exchange rate, in line with the so-called “1 and 2 soybean dollars” of last September and December. .

BCRA’s international reserves drop by around USD 4.6 billion in 2023

This Tuesday the BCRA ended the day with sales of 35 million USD to meet the demand of the wholesale market, during a session with business for 232.8 million USD on the spot segment.

For the experts of Portfolio Personal Inversiones, “it is complex to imagine the path chosen by the economic team, if there is one, to reach the reserve objective. It is clear that a REPO of $1,000 million would help reduce gap but it would be more than insufficient to close it. Another tool, virtually discounted by the market at this point, is a 3.0 dollar soybean, which has no guarantee of success like its predecessors in September and December.

Gustave Bereconomist at Estudio Ber, said that “despite the unfavorable evolution of the exchange rate and the monetary front, the interventions continue for the moment to reach a relative calm among the financial dollars, even if the said ‘confinement’ could only be temporary if these factors continue and the underlying inflationary pressure, given that the postponement only fuels the search for hedging, already encouraged at the base by the election year and the drop in demand for money”.

After trading higher for most of the trade, the The “blue” dollar ended unchanged from Monday at $379 for sale on the small parallel market. Thus, it remains two pesos below the January close at $381. However, since the beginning of 2023, it has recorded an increase of 33 pesos or 9.5%.

With the dollar rising 34 cents in the wholesale market to $191.99, the exchange rate differential is 97.4%.

“Looking at relative prices, the official dollar is expected to trade 27% above current prices. This is the maximum discrete jump we expect for the official dollar. Now with the income of international organizations and the measures to avoid the loss of reserves, it is a possibility that is being diluted. We are also seeing a significant difference in the December dollar futures rate of this year, indicating that the market is starting to ‘price“(transfer on prices) a devaluation as soon as the next administration takes office”, he estimated Ignatius Moralesfinancial business analyst at Wise Capital.

There January inflation past, the first measurement of 2023, was 6%, according to the consumer price index (CPI) published Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). Thus, the cumulative figure for the last twelve months reached 98.8%.

This indicator was discounted by market agents and mobilized the recent rises in equities. index S&P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange closed with a gain of 0.3%, to 258,463 points, after gaining nearly 3.7% in the previous two sessions. However, the performance of the leading panel went from high to low, as it reached over 262,000 points in the middle of the business round.

“It is very difficult to think of low inflation without sound fiscal policy. Argentina’s economic history gives us clear signs that whenever the budget deficit was large, inflation was high. This happens because Argentina has no foreign financing, so the deficits are financed by currency issues by the BCRA,” explained Ignacio Morales.

Among stocks and ADRs of Argentine companies traded in dollars on Wall Street, the rises also extended, driven by IRSA, with 6.4%. The shopping center management company posted a dollar profit of 43.7% at the start of the year.

Dollar bonds offered a slight average decline of 0.3% for Globals on Wall Street, with a countries at risk who subtracted four units for Argentina from 1,968 stitches basic.

Wall Street indicators ended mixed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.5%, while the Dow Jones lost 0.5%.

The year-on-year inflation rate in the United States continued to decline in January, for the seventh consecutive month, and stood at 6.4% year on year, a tenth lower than in December, the data showed. proposed on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. , In English).

However, in monthly terms, consumer prices rose half a point, as we analyze whether interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are having an effect on lower price.

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