Calculating the numbers of the war in Ukraine: an elusive task

GENEVA (AP) — Quantifying war casualties in Ukraine remains an elusive goal a year after the invasion.

Estimates of casualties, refugees and economic consequences of war give an incomplete picture of death and suffering. The precise numbers of the categories that international organizations attempt to track may never be known.

UN human rights experts know that their number of civilian deaths and injuries may be grossly underrepresented. Neither Russia nor Ukraine gave updated figures on their military losses.

Even the amount of weapons Western countries have sent to Ukraine is unclear.

Here’s a look at the numbers a year after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, with no end in sight.

THE EVOLUTION OF AN INVASION

Around 5,000 missile strikes, 3,500 aircraft strikes and 1,000 drone strikes: That’s the firepower Russia unleashed on Ukraine throughout the year, says Brigadier Oleksiy Hromov of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

18%: The percentage of Ukrainian territory held by Russia as of Thursday, according to the Institute for the Study of War. It was 27% on March 23, before Ukrainian counter-offensives liberated huge amounts of territory, but more than the 7% held by Russia and pro-Russian separatists before February 24, 2022 as part of an armed rebellion in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and the Russian annexation of Crimea that year.

71,905: Possible Russian War Crimes: Murders, kidnappings, indiscriminate bombings and sexual assaults investigated by Ukraine’s Attorney General. The Associated Press and the PBS series “Frontline” have independently verified 639 incidents that appear to violate the laws of war, recorded in a public database.

THE VICTIMS

8,006: Confirmed civilian deaths since the start of the Russian invasion until February 15, according to the UN human rights office. The office, which follows a strict methodology, says reports of thousands of casualties in Russian-occupied cities such as Mariupol, Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk have yet to be verified.

3,382 civilian deaths in Ukraine recorded by the UN human rights office in March 2022, the highest monthly figure in the war.

13,287: Civilians injured in conflict throughout the year, according to the UN.

5,937: the latest Russian count, in September, of its soldiers killed in Ukraine since February 2022.

About 200,000: Western estimate of Russian soldiers killed and wounded. The British Ministry of Defense estimates that between 40,000 and 60,000 Russian soldiers were killed in Ukraine.

9,000: The latest Ukrainian tally of its military casualties, released in August by General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Over 100,000: Estimated number of Ukrainian soldiers killed or injured, according to Western officials.

REFUGEES AND DISPLACED

8.1 million: Refugees who fled Ukraine after the Russian invasion, according to figures provided by national governments. The figure includes more than 5.2 million in more than 40 countries in Europe and Central Asia, including nearly 1.6 million in Poland, more than 880,000 in Germany and nearly 2.9 million who surrendered in Russia, according to the UN refugee agency, UNHCR. .

5.4 million: people driven from their homes but remained in Ukraine, according to a January 23 count by the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The number of internally displaced people peaked in early May 2022, when IOM reported that they numbered over 8 million.

5.6 million: Ukrainians who have returned home, either from other parts of the country or from abroad, according to the latest IOM figures.

17.6 million: people in Ukraine in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

ECONOMIC COST

138 billion dollars: the total damage inflicted on Ukrainian infrastructure due to the war, according to the latest figure from the Faculty of Economics in kyiv, dated January 24.

33%: Minimum drop in Ukrainian gross domestic product in 2022 predicted by the International Monetary Fund. Final figures are pending.

2.2%: Expected decline in Russian GDP in 2022, according to the IMF.

30%: Fall in the value of Ukrainian exports in 2022, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

16%: Increase in the value of Russian exports in 2022, according to the WTO. He notes that the volume of Russian exports may have fallen slightly, but the value has increased due to higher prices for Russian-produced fuels, fertilizers and grain.

INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

$113 billion: emergency funds approved by the US Congress for Ukraine last year. It includes $62 billion to be provided through the Department of Defense, nearly half for weapons, training, and “direct security assistance,” and $46 billion through the Department. of State and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID, for its acronym in English), according to the Pentagon and an interdepartmental report published last month.

$78 billion: Direct U.S. commitments to Ukraine over the past year and through Jan. 15, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IFW Kiel). The Germany-based institute says the figure excludes funds that weren’t used or that went to Ukraine’s neighbors or internal US programs. It does not include more recent US pledges to Ukraine, such as sending 31 M1 Abrams tanks.

55 billion euros ($59 billion) pledged by European Union member countries and EU institutions to Ukraine, according to IFW Kiel.

€13 billion ($14 billion): Pledges and allocations from the IMF, World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and other non-governmental donors.

50%: estimate by IFW Kiel of the aid sent as a percentage of the commitments made by the various donors.

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Associated Press writer Hanna Arhirova in Kyiv contributed to this report.