A study carried out by three American universities forecasts for 2023 a decrease in housing rental prices in Miami and other areas of Florida and at the same time an increase in New York as a result of the return home of the “covid-19 refugees”.

Researchers from Florida Atlantic University, The University of Alabama, and Florida Gulf Coast University participating in this study estimate that rents in the New York metropolitan area will increase about 21% in June 2023.

They and other COVID-19 “refugees” who moved to the “sunny state” are largely credited with driving Florida real estate rents up considerably.

According to an article published this Monday on the Florida Atlantic University (FAU) website, the metropolitan areas of Fort Myers (southwest Florida) and Miami (southeast) are once again classified as the two most overvalued rental markets in the country.

Renters this June paid 29% more than they did in June 2021, according to figures from the Waller Weeks and Johnson Rental Index.

In fact, in the list of the 109 overvalued markets in the US, the top eight are in Florida and had year-over-year rent increases of more than 21%, says FAU.

Under normal conditions, rents traditionally increase by only 3-5% per year.

Research from the three universities indicates that steep rent increases in the eight overpriced Florida markets “are on track to taper off sharply next year, at the same time rents rise in the New York metro area.”

Ken H. Johnson, an economist at FAU’s College of Business, says that “those Covid-19 refugees imposed a significant burden on the demand for rental units in Florida, with rents soaring to record highs, while New York just got a little more affordable.”

With those workers coming home, Florida should see a cooling in its rent increases, and New York renters will once again have to deal with much higher rates.

The researchers used rental data from the Zillow rental index to determine existing rentals and statistically model historical trends.

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