Rodrigue Zuleta
Berlin, February 13 The Munich Security Conference (MSC) published its annual report on Monday, focusing on the challenge posed by Russian aggression against Ukraine, described as a challenge to the fundamental principles of the post-World War II world order.
The report is one of the bases of the deliberations of the conference which will begin on February 17 with the assistance of some fifty heads of state or government.
The report confirms that it was an unprovoked aggression and a war in which the crimes committed are not something collateral but part of Russian strategy.
Behind all of this is a revisionist narrative promoted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, widely backed by China, and which the report says resonates with some parts of the Global South where there is some discontent with the regard to the international order.
Putin’s account shows the war, based on the idea of a Russian victory, as the end of an international order dictated by the West, in particular the United States, and as a step towards a multipolar order.
According to the report, a Russian victory would be a visible symbol of the beginning of a post-Western era and the beginning of what is called “a new authoritarian multilateralism”.
An order which, with all its problems, was based on the UN charter would be followed by an era of spheres of influence, in a throwback to the 19th century, with great powers marking their territories by force.
“Putin left no doubt that in his aim to restore the Russian empire, he does not feel bound by the minimum standards of international law,” the report said.
Russia regards its immediate neighborhood as its sphere of influence.
MSC Director Christoph Heusgen recalled in an earlier presentation of the report that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had clarified that after a victory in Ukraine, the next target would be Moldova and that the three Baltic countries – Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia – are convinced that they will soon enter into Russian expansion plans.
“The war in Ukraine is the first imperialist war of the 21st century, but it will not necessarily be the last,” the report said.
Alongside Russian expansion plans, China is pursuing an increasingly aggressive policy in Asia and does not hide its desire to seize Taiwan.
According to various surveys in almost all regions of the world, there is awareness that the Russian war of aggression implies a shift in the security order.
However, according to the report, some countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America – despite a clear vote in the UN assembly – have been reluctant to clearly condemn Russian aggression and to isolate Moscow economically and diplomatically.
In some regions, there is a perception of the war as a conflict between Europeans, of which, above all, certain repercussions such as the rise in food prices are worrying.
Furthermore, in many quarters there is dissatisfaction with the existing order and a loss of confidence in its legitimacy.
Still, the report adds, dissatisfaction with the world order does not translate into a desire for Russia or China to have more influence or support for what the report calls autocratic revisionism. .
“You can paraphrase Winston Churchill’s phrase that democracy is the worst system that exists except all the others. For many, the world order is the worst that exists except all the other possible orders “said MSC Research and Publications Director Sophie Eisentraut.
In any case, this order is threatened. On the one hand, because of the desire for Russian expansion, but there are also the internal threats of the movements which question, within the western democracies, the principles of the liberal order.
One of the conclusions of the report is that, in order to defend the liberal order, it is necessary to make it more attractive to those who do not feel represented by it and to accept the legitimate criticisms leveled at it as an incitement to reform, especially in the countries of the Global South. .EFE
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