World wheat stocks are rising, and larger crops in Australia and India could offset some of the losses from the Black Sea, where the war is disrupting about a quarter of global trade in the grain.
That’s according to the US Department of Agriculture’s crop projection, released Wednesday. Wheat in Chicago fell to the edge of the bag and remains stuck there.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown global wheat supplies into chaos. Futures are at their most volatile in at least a decade and hit an all-time high this week. The gains – along with rising vegetable oil prices and near-record levels for corn and soybeans – could significantly lift global food prices already to their highest levels on record. The two nations account for about a quarter of global trade in wheat and barley, a fifth of corn and most of sunflower oil.
Meanwhile, Australia will harvest a record crop and India will continue to export at a strong pace thanks to its ample reserves and rising world prices.
Benchmark Chicago wheat futures fell at the stock market limit, or 6.6%, to $12,015 a bushel, after hitting a multi-year high the previous day. Prices still show an advance of more than 50% compared to the beginning of the year. Corn futures fell 2.8% to $7.3225 a bushel, while soybeans also fell.
The US forecast comes as Northern Hemisphere corn, soybean and spring wheat farmers gear up for planting season. Growers are already grappling with rising costs for everything from fertilizer to seeds to fuel.
In Brazil, a major supplier of corn and soybeans, a devastating drought is ruining crops. Last year, dry weather conditions also weakened fields in Canada and parts of the US Farmers in North America may see current prices as a reason to plant more this spring, but it will be months before those acres are harvested.