The dollar, bonds and indexed time limits: the most sought after by investors

The dollar, bonds and indexed time limits: the most sought after by investors

The bond tender of the Ministry of Economy showed investors’ preference for the bonds that are indexed by the CER, that is, those that hedge against inflation. Of the $ 194,345 million that it captured and allow it to cover the next maturities, 31% were for indexed securities, to the point that those who bought it paid more than the nominal price, thus losing the surcharge. In fact, the indexed bonds that mature this year had a negative rate and those that mature in 2022 had a surcharge of 0%.

Of course, the same orientation was followed by the indexed fixed terms that between Thursday and last Friday grew by $ 666 million (+ 1.02%) to $ 65,698 million. The negative rate with respect to inflation given by fixed terms is causing a migration of investors. In fact, fixed terms rose just 0.05% in those 24 hours. They are growing at a slower rate than the interest rate.

For this reason, indexed bonds and deposits, which must be kept in banks for at least 90 days, together with alternative dollars are the havens that investors choose to hedge against inflation that they believe will be higher than what the consulting firms and an inflation that comes under pressure from the rise in prices.

The other novelty was not very encouraging for the Government. Reserves dropped USD 130 million to USD 39,499 million because the BCRA had to sell USD 20 million to importers and make some payments abroad.

In the wholesale market, only USD 185 million were traded because exporters were missing and the dollar rose 10 cents to $ 87.12. The Central Bank’s effort to keep the dollar by which foreign trade is governed at levels that do not threaten inflation, is costing it a high price in reserves. Of the last 5 days, in 3 he was a seller of dollars. During that period, reserves fell by USD 259 million, more than half of the USD 413 million that YPF has to pay on March 23.

Precisely, the oil company with its doubts about the maturity of its bonds, was the great engine of the market. On the stock market, where deals totaled $ 1,072 million, a higher volume than usual, the S&P Merval, the index of leading stocks, rose 1.02%, after having hit a floor of -1.68% at 1:00 p.m. . But the rise in the indicator was marked by a handful of companies, the rest are as hopeless as before and even more because the possibility of vaccinating a significant percentage of the population is failing, which augurs a prolongation of the crisis.

YPF (+ 6.66%) led the movement. There are more who believe that the company will pay than those who suspect that it will default. In four wheels the profit of these shares reached 20.5%. He was escorted by Transportadora Gas del Norte (+ 5.01%) and BBVA (+ 5%). In the rest of the advances there was little to highlight because they were negligible.

The ADRs – certificates of holding shares listed on the New York Stock Exchanges and which are hedging because they allow the purchase of any paper listed on the North American market in pesos at the price of the dollar counted with settlement – operated $ 1,721 million. The Argentine ADRs did not have a good day and the decreases far exceeded the rises. The most affected papers were IRSA (-4.95%), MercadoLibre (-4.93%) and Despegar (-3.47%). Among the few ADRs that increased were those of YPF (+ 8.21%), Corporación América (+ 3.21%) and BBVA (+ 2.47%).

The alternative dollars, every day relive the same story, although with different schedules. This time, the Central Bank let them run for a long time, but at the end it intervened strongly to cut the increases that exceeded 1%. At that time, it came out to sell the AL30s in dollars at lower prices, which caused it to lose 0.34% of its value. With the movement, he managed to make the stock market dollar or MEP lower its rise to 49 cents (0.3%) $ 147.38. Business in this dollar grew to USD 26.9 million. The cash with liquidation, with a volume of USD 63.7 million, also suffered from the Central and rose 44 cents (+ 0.3%) to $ 150.16. In the free market, where the GD30 is traded, which fell 0.25%, the dollar paid was $ 153, somewhat lower than the previous day.

In the marginal square, the “blue” or free dollar, lost $ 2 and closed at $ 154 because there is too much supply of tickets for such a small market.

Country risk once again suffered from the fall in New York law bonds and increased 15 units (+ 1%) to 1,448 basis points. The market is going to adapt to the regulations and that is why it is turning to indexed bonds, which are not only a good hedge, but are one of the few free financial assets that can be operated without stocks or controls.

John Bondy
John Bondy is a Market specialist working for Globe Live Media since 2020. He stays up to date with all the recent movements in Market, Finance, and Business field. Usually, the Finance section is covered by Samuel Edwards, but John Bondy is no where behind when it comes to quality finance reports.