Nineteenth day of war in Ukraine and European stock exchanges up (+ 1.59% in the Dax, + 0.28% in the Cac40 and + 1.10% at 23,294 points in the Ftse Mib), except London (-0.04% on Ftse100). Wall Street futures were also positive (+ 0.70% for the Dow Jones and + 0.58% for the S & P500) in the Fed week. The United States said that China will face severe “consequences” if it helps Russia in its invasion. of Ukraine. In an interview with CNN, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US is “communicating directly, privately, to Beijing that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions circumvention efforts. or for support for Russia to avoid its effects “.
“We will not allow this to go on and we will not allow there to be a lifeline for Russia from these economic sanctions from any country, anywhere in the world,” said Sullivan, who will meet with the Chinese envoy today in Rome. , Yang Jiechi. In response, the Chinese embassy in Washington has made it known that it is not aware of the alleged request for military support made by Moscow to China. “The top priority now is to prevent the tense situation from escalating or even getting out of control,” said Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington.
At the heart of today’s Eurogroup is the economic situation deriving from the aggression of Ukraine, after the EU has launched a fourth round of sanctions against Russia: in coordination with the allies of the G7, it has decided to revoke the status of “favorite nation”. The 10-year BTP rate rises to 1.885% (the 10-year Treasury yield also increases to 2.041%), while the BTP / Bund spread falls slightly to 158.40 basis points. Today, France and Germany are active on the primary front in the short segment.
Even in the face of high volatility, Warren Buffett has firm points on how to invest in the event of a war. This is one of his suggestions during the 2014 Crimean War: “the only thing you can be quite sure of is that if we entered into a very big war, the value of money would decrease, as it has happened in practically every war of I am aware of. The last thing to do is to hold money during a war. ” In other words, according to Buffet it is better to favor investments in real assets and shares of the energy sector, in gold and commodities. His reasoning is based on this analysis: “During the Second World War, the stock market advanced and the stock market will advance over time. American companies will be worth more money, dollars will be worth less,
The key US economic indicators “point to a potential recession that could turn into stagflation. There are several factors that signal that the US economy could be close to a recession: the yield curve is inverted, although not all the reversals have then led to a recession, a commodity price shock, a tightening of Fed monetary policy and rising labor costs. And there seems to be the possibility that all four will happen at the same time. According to Goldman Sachs, the likelihood of a US recession in 2023 is close to reaching 35% “, said Antonio Tognoli of Integrae Sim.
According to several analysts, the analysis is even more merciless for Europe where there is a high probability of recession if the situation does not normalize quickly. Risks include shocks in energy and agricultural commodity prices, amplified disruptions to supply chains, and consumer confidence increasingly undermined by the ongoing war. “We saw Buffet’s operational suggestions during a war. We see, according to our analysis, which investments could offer risk-compatible profitability with a potential recession at the door. These are: the energy and materials companies, along with the defensive sectors of health care and public services. agriculture given the tension in the fertilizer markets. But also real estate “, Tognoli suggested,” which historically have offered good protection in times of inflation “.