International media assure that the British Ministry of Defense said that the president concentrated troops on the northern border in a way that “directly threatens Kiev” and that he has several possible invasion routes, divided into two phases.
On Wednesday, February 16, the United Kingdom assured that Vladimir Putin has a “battle plan” to invade Ukraine and revealed it. In addition, it was mentioned that this revolves around the high alert of US and European officials for any attempted attack.
According to reports, there were British government officials who did not believe that Putin would launch the aggressive move. However, in the last hours everything changed.
According to the authorities, Putin concentrated troops on Ukraine’s northern border and that is seen as a “direct threat to Kiev,” the Defense Ministry report said. In addition, it was reported that Russia would probably attack from its own territory and from Belarus.
The US uncovers information about Russia in a risky strategy to prevent the invasion of Ukraine
The US government normally keeps its intelligence affairs tight, but by revealing the secret details of Russia’s military plans, it hopes this time to prevent an invasion of Ukraine.
Since Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops to the Ukrainian border in recent months, Washington has adopted an unconventional strategy to let Moscow and the world know what it knows about Russian invasion plans, rather than keeping it in the dark. secret.
“Finally, Washington is catching up with its rivals – including Russia and WikiLeaks – in using the information to profile events,” Douglas London, a former CIA officer, wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine.
With tensions rising, US officials said in early February that Moscow was planning to stage a video with explicit footage of a fake Ukrainian attack on Russia or on Russians inside Ukraine , using images of destroyed sites, “corpses” of alleged victims and even people who would act as mourners.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby is one of several officials who detailed the alleged plan verbatim.
“We have seen this type of activity by the Russians in the past and we think it is important that when we see it, as well as now, we can report it,” he said.
Officials have not explained how they know about the plan, and such a ruse has not taken place so far.
But to US diplomats and military and intelligence officials, that may prove his strategy is working, giving Russian President Vladimir Putin second thoughts about an alleged scheme he might have on his hands.
Days later, US officials provided reporters with details about the more than 100 military massed on Ukraine’s borders, describing Russia’s possible invasion strategy, estimated casualties, and revealing a very specific map of the plan with the planned invasion routes.
On Thursday, February 17, the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, projected that the scene of an invasion could arrive “in a matter of days”, according to the officials.
“First, Russia plans to fabricate a pretext for its attack,” Blinken charged at the United Nations Security Council.
“This could be a violent event that Russia attributes to Ukraine,” he said.
“It could be an alleged terrorist bombing inside Russia, the fabrication of a mass grave, a staged drone attack on civilians, or a fake or even real chemical weapons attack. Russia would describe these events as ethnic cleansing or genocide,” he described, referring to a claim made by Putin on Tuesday, February 15.
For the second step, he continued, “the highest levels of the Russian government would theatrically convene emergency meetings to deal with the supposed crisis. The government would issue statements proclaiming that Russia must respond to defend Russian citizens or ethnic Russians in Ukraine.”
“Then the attack is planned to begin,” he concluded.
Fewer outlets for Putin
Making such intelligence public is not how things usually work in Washington.
However, officials say they are hopeful that such a move will uncover Moscow’s skillful and effective disinformation efforts, and even deter an attack.
“The more Washington exposes Russia’s intentions and actions, the fewer outlets left for Putin to look good ,” London explained.
He said disclosing intelligence comes with high risks, such as exposing valuable sources and channels, or losing credibility if it turns out to be wrong.
The image of the United States was seriously affected in 2003 when Secretary of State Colin Powell told the United Nations that the United States had “proof” of the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, an accusation that “justified” the invasion. American and that finally turned out to be false.
In another case, London recalls that intelligence was made public to positive effect when US officials leaked specific details to the media linking Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman to the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
“In that case, the US government thought it was worth it.”
US officials say their accusations about Russia and Ukraine could be proven wrong, and have admitted they could be criticized for it.
But, in fact, that is his wish: that revealing Putin’s plans ends up dissuading him from carrying them out.
“It is the best possible result. We would save thousands of lives,” said a senior official in this eventual scenario.