They assure that the drought has caused the most critical productive moment of the last 20 years

Drought continues to hit the Argentine countryside, leaving it in one of the most critical situations in its history. As it looked like the rains were starting to return to normal and crops were finding respite with the arrival of the long-awaited water, a new dry pulse and an extreme heat wave in late February and so far in March rechecked production, leading to significant reductions in soybean and corn crop estimates.

“This is the most critical productive moment of the past 20 years,” he said. GlobeLiveMedia Christian Russianthe head of the Strategic Guide for Agriculture (GEA) of the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), the division in charge of production estimates.

For the specialist, not only is this drought worse than the previous ones of the 2008/09 and 2017/18 campaigns, but he considers that “Argentina is suffering from an unprecedented climatic scenario in modern agriculture” and that the situation risks still getting worse.

Over the past week, in its monthly estimate, the RBC has significantly reduced soybean and corn production projections. Either way, it predicts losses of 7.5 million tonnes from last month, putting the oilseed crop as the worst in 15 years at just 27 million tonnes and the maize crop at 35 million.

Certainly, the RBC was not the only entity to make cuts. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) predicts a 4.5 million ton drop in soybean production, to 29 million tons; and 3.5 million for corn, to 37.5 million tons, while the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated an oilseed crop of 33 million tons (8 million tons of less than forecast the previous month) and 40 million for yellow beans (down 7 million tons).

According to Russo, one of the central points that makes this drought so dramatic is that “in this campaign, the three crops (wheat, soybeans and corn) have failed in a large part of the pampas region, which is an area where the impact is very strong, we are talking about the fact that the wheat has finished with half of the harvest, since the soybeans should be 45% lower than estimated at the time of sowing and 35% for the corn. enormous and it is in the three harvests”.

“Today, we are stuck in a situation of very strong cuts on soybeans and corn, with losses that come close to the ghost of having half a harvest on the three crops”, warned the specialist, who sees there possible for corn and soybeans. to replicate what happened in wheat, where only half of the originally expected volume was obtained, especially if current weather conditions persist.

“We see that this week the high temperatures will continue and that there may be thunderstorms in central and southern Buenos Aires, but they could leave little water, while much of the region of the pampas would continue without precipitation,” added Russo.

This is why the person in charge of the Strategic Guide for Agriculture of the RBC warns that “the losses are starting to be exponential. The batches are no longer dried, they are burned. Few lots begin to stand. There is no water at basement level, there is no water one meter deep, there is no more. There may be a further reduction in production. We don’t know how it will end, but unfortunately it is possible to continue making discounts.”

And it is on this basis that the alarm bells are starting to sound for the upcoming wheat campaign, the implementation of which will begin in the coming months. “We are missing a year of rain, equivalent to 950 millimeters in the entire Pampa region. What we see is that the wheat plantings are coming and two things are happening: people are desperate because almost all their working capital is lost and they want to grow wheat, but to make a rational planting it need 200 millimeters in the floors. It has to rain more than that in the fall to have a logical implementation, with possibilities,” said Cristián Russo.

It is for this reason that in the countryside, it is essential that the rains return and that the temperatures drop. In dialogue with GlobeLiveMedia, graduate in atmospheric sciences from the Institute of Climate and Water of INTA Castelar, Natalia Gattinoni, explained that this heat wave occurs due to the persistence of a mass of hot and humid air in our territory and because the frontal systems that arrive from the north of the Patagonian region are not strong enough to be able to move. Although they can generate some instability in areas of La Pampa or south of Buenos Aires, they do not manage to last.

Now, although Gattinoni observed that so-called heat waves are common in the summer, he pointed out that “since records have been set, there may be between three or four heat waves in the summer, but this summer, there were eight heat waves and were prolonged over time and this is what characterized the resort”.

Regarding the forecast for the next few days, Gattinoni noted that the warm conditions will persist on Saturday and Sunday, with variable cloudiness and that next Tuesday “there is a possibility of precipitation in the center of the territory, but it is very rare, with values ​​of In the middle of next week, possibly between Thursday and Friday, we expect a frontal system which could this time bring down precipitation in the center and north of the territory and a modification of the air mass, but we must be attentive to how this situation evolves?

Of course, these production cuts correlate to the economic impact that the country will experience in the coming months, which worries the national government, especially given the constant lack of dollars that our country faces. And unfortunately, one of the confirmations they already have at Palacio de Hacienda is that this year the estate will not be able to make the great contribution of previous years.

Taking into account only the exports of the complexes of wheat, soy and corn, which in total record losses of 50 million tonnes, estimated shipments for this season would stand at USD 21,740 million, implying a drop in shipments of USD 13,950 million compared to the previous cycle and of USD 14,240 million compared to what was expected at the start of field crop sowing. In other words, more than $14,000 million will not come in compared to what was planned.

As for the blow it will have on the economy in general, the RBC has estimated that the losses both for the productive sector and for the directly and indirectly related activities will be around 19,000 million dollars, or the equivalent of 3 GDP points estimated for 2023. .

For its part, the CREA Movement estimated a greater impact on the inflow of foreign currencies than the BCR. Although it considers all grain-oilseed complexes and manages other production figures, it projected export losses in the order of $20,000 million, a much more serious scenario than that proposed by the stock market.

Similarly, and considering another aspect of the impact of the drought, a report made by the Agricultural Engineer, villa louis, indicates that this year the agricultural sector will represent less than 4.5% of GDP, estimated at 4.35% of GDP. It should be remembered that in 2022, the participation was 7%.

“There is no similar value in the World Bank data series, which starts in 1965,” Villa said in his report, adding that, for example, in 2000 and 2001 they were 4, respectively. 7% and 4.6%. “The joint negative impact of the drought, some late frosts in the spring of 2022 and the early frost on February 18 this year is of considerable magnitude for the country’s agricultural and livestock production,” Villa said.

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