Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognize Ukraine’s eastern breakaway territories as independent appears to be the opening shot of a larger potential military operation against Ukraine, nearly a dozen US and Western officials told GLM.
“This is Potemkin’s policy,” a senior administration official told reporters on Monday. “President Putin is accelerating the very conflict that he created.”
The United States expects Russian troops to be able to enter Ukraine’s Donbas region as soon as Monday night or Tuesday, after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the two pro-Moscow territories as independent, he told GLM a senior US official familiar with the latest intelligence.
The US is still seeing preparations for a possible invasion, including loading amphibious ships and loading equipment for airborne units.
U.S. and Western officials said Putin’s decision to sign the decree, which proclaims the Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the Russian-backed Lugansk People’s Republic (LNR) as independent territories, has given Putin the justification that he wanted to send in Russian forces and potentially launch a broader attack on Ukraine in the name of protecting breakaway regions.
The Kremlin announced Monday night that Russia would send “peacekeeping” forces to breakaway territories, confirming the worst fears of many officials.
“That is their invasion,” said a European diplomat. “If we don’t act on this as we have said we would in the event of a new invasion, we will have seriously undermined our credibility,” the diplomat said.
Still, in a call with reporters, the senior administration official suggested to reporters that the mere movement of new Russian “peacekeeping” forces into eastern Ukraine would not trigger the full package of sanctions that the administration has threatened in the event of a Russian invasion, noting that “there have been Russian forces present in these areas” since 2014.
“So we’re going to be watching very closely what they do in the coming hours and days and our response will be measured, again, by their actions,” the official said. The official said that “it now appears that Russia will openly operate in that region and we will respond accordingly.”
The official did not identify which line Russian troops would have to cross in eastern Ukraine to be considered a new invasion.
The White House said Monday that Biden would impose new financial restrictions on the breakaway republics, and a senior administration official told reporters that more actions would be announced on Tuesday. But some officials say the sanctions don’t go far enough, especially considering Biden’s assertion last month that if “any assembled Russian unit crosses the border into Ukraine, that’s an invasion” and “will receive a harsh and coordinated economic response.” ».