The role of the US in the crisis between Russia and Ukraine

U.S is firm: will support Ukraine against a possible invasion of Russia. That is why the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, will meet this Wednesday with President Volodimir Zelenski to discuss the said threat.

The appointment will take place in Kiev and aims to reinforce “the United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

But Blinken will not stop there. He will then travel to Berlin and will discuss this matter with his allies Germany, France and the United Kingdom. And on Friday the 20th the round will end with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

While this is happening, thousands of Russian troops remain near the Ukrainian border.

CNN recalls that, before starting this tour, Blinken spoke precisely with Lavrov. In that conversation, he stressed the importance of continuing a diplomatic path to de-escalate tensions surrounding the deeply troubling Russian military buildup in and near Ukraine.

The dialogue seems to have been fruitless.

The same fate suffered the telematic meetings between the presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.

In this regard, the internationalist Francisco Belaúnde note:

“The meetings have not allowed much progress because Russia has made its demand for a written guarantee from NATO on the non-integration of Ukraine and other countries, as well as no more military exercises in bordering member countries, a non-negotiable point.”

What is Putin looking for? In principle, says Belaúnde, the Russian president understands that the countries that were part of the Soviet Union or of Warsaw pact belong to its zone of influence.

And no other power can interfere in his fiefdom.

Putin would also consider that Ukraine is an artificial country and that its citizens are actually Russians. In that sense, it is unbearable to think that they may have ties to the West, much less with the European Union and NATO.

“It is an insult, he sees it as something humiliating.”

National sovereignty would also be at stake.

Belaúnde collects what some analysts already suggest within the world scheme: Putin would be annoyed if the countries that were part of the USSR could have democracies. “Something like a bad example for Russia, and it cannot be allowed to promote bad ideas or encourage opposition sectors”.

“That is an unspoken reason. He wants nothing to do with color revolutions. He does not want to know anything about democratic revolts.”

The US role

For Belaúnde it is clear that fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine have increased because, precisely, Putin is not going to give his arm to twist on certain issues. “He demands that they meet his demands in the shortest possible time and says that if they do not agree with him, something will happen”.

What could that “something” be?

“Perhaps an invasion, not necessarily of the country but of the breakaway regions. There may also be cyber attacks, aerial bombardments.”

In parallel, U.S denounces that “there are Russian agents in Ukraine whose mission is to generate accidents to provide pretexts for an invasion”.

In this regard, CNN confirms:

“The United States has information indicating that Russia has prepared a group of agents in advance to execute a ‘false flag’ operation in eastern Ukraine, in an attempt to create a pretext for an invasion.”

“These agents are ‘trained in urban warfare and the use of explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces.”

This is without taking into account the presence of the Russian armed forces on the border.

“And that Russia would be reducing its diplomatic presence in Ukraine, something that usually happens prior to a military conflict.”

With that scenario in mind, what can be expected from the role of the US in this situation?

“What he is doing is a combination of diplomacy with threats. For example, if Russia invades, the presence of NATO troops in neighboring countries will be increased.”

Also, says the specialist, Washington has delivered weapons to Ukraine.

“In parallel, very strong economic measures have been announced. Russia could be restricted from accessing the SWIFT code, which is used to make international transfers.”

“It is a very strong sanction that can be a double-edged sword because it could affect European countries that do business with Moscow.”

What the United States will not do is send soldiers to Ukraine. Will weapons, joint work with NATO and threats be enough?