Sergio Massa and Kristalina Georgieva during the official dinner of the G20 finance ministers and central bank presidents meeting in Bangalore (India)

(Special Envoy to Bangalore, India). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) prepares to switch plans with Argentina following the war in Ukraine and the serious repercussions of the drought on cereal production. This would be a partial modification of the quantitative targets that had been planned for 2023, given the foreseeable shortage of dollars caused by exogenous events beyond the control of the Palacio de Hacienda.

The announcement of the Fund would be made today by Sergio Massa there Kristalina Georgievaafter the meeting to be held here in a dead end the G20 summit of finance ministers and central bankers hosted by India.

The drought has reduced cereal production and the trend could increase in the coming weeks. The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) estimated that the soybean crop could fall to historic lows, while corn threshing would be the worst since 2018.

As for the economic consequences of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, a paper of the Palacio de Hacienda accurately described its impact on currency availability above what was expected before the start of the war.

“The war in Ukraine caused significant changes in the global economic scenario, which generated a negative effect of $4,940 million on the trade balance. which is attributed to a general shock of international prices in the agricultural sector (soya 9.4%, wheat 33.7% and corn 17.8%) and on the price of fuels (Bolivian gas 114%, LNG 233% and Diesel 85%)”, reveals the report on the cost of war prepared by the Ministry of Economy.

Massa took advantage of the G20 scenario to explain to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and the Fund’s Deputy Managing Director, Gita Gopinath, the financial and economic effects that war and drought have caused in Argentina. The minister met Georgieva three times and shared more than one meeting with Gopinath, who is the technical brain of the multilateral credit organization.

Georgieva and Gopinath quickly understood Massa’s arguments. A few hours ago, the director general was in kyiv to visit Ukrainian leader Volodimir Zelensky, a year after the conflict in Europe.

And Vice-Principal Gopinath have a database which describes with astonishing precision how the world’s raw materials – fuels, grains and fertilizers – fluctuated due to the military offensive that Vladimir Putin ordered in the Kremlin.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath at the G20 summit in Bangalore
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath at the G20 summit in Bangalore

In this context, Massa reminded Georgieva and Gopinath of strict adherence to agreed 2022 targets and revealed the costs that the war in Ukraine has caused in Argentina. Greater expense due to increased energy, fertilizer and grain, there was a lower income of dollars to the reserves of the Central Bank.

And to complete the economic and financial loop, the drought wiped out a significant part of the crops of wheat, barley, soybeans and corn. It was a natural fact caused by climate change that the main Argentine producers were able to describe in detail to the important technical executives of the IMF.

The arguments of the Minister of Economy in Bangalore had an impact on the negotiations that an Argentine technical mission is leading in Washington. Georgieva and Gopinath briefed the IMF bureaucracy on the new situation, and from that moment the process of reformulation of the program accelerated in geometric terms.

As it was already early Saturday morning in Bangalore and the heat was starting to drop, The communications that Massa received from his team stationed in the capital of the United States followed one another. The Minister of Economy listened to the reports of his trusted officials, while preparing the meeting he will have today with Georgieva and Gopinath.

The meeting will take place at the Marriot Hotel Convention Center and when it ends, it is expected that the authorities of the Fund and the head of the Palacio de Hacienda will communicate what has been agreed to respond to the extraordinary circumstances caused by the war in Ukraine and drought. in Argentina. .

Georgieva agreed with Massa’s arguments and there was no objection from the United States Treasury Secretary, who, through Janet Yellen, controls all IMF staff and board movements. Argentina respects the Extended Facilities Agreement, and today’s announcement is a decision taken by the Director of the IMF.

This does not imply an adjustment of the economy, nor a derogation requested by the Palacio de Hacienda.

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