Does Cristina play? When will Alberto abandon the idea of his re-election? What if he doesn’t lower it? One, two or three candidates? How to make the PASO of Peronism competitive? Can Sergio still be a candidate despite inflation? Who is better than him? axel? Wado? Scioli? He In front of all is overwhelmed with endless questions that still have no answers, a reason that generates impatience and confusion
In the party in power, there is clarity only on what is happening on the sidewalk opposite. Despite the crisis that triggered the internship between Mauricio Macri and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, in Together for Change there are fewer questions to be answered, although those that are missing can be decisive in the final assembly of the electoral scenario. Proper names and the ideas they express modify the proposal of the electorate during a possible ballot.
The latest polls carried out in various government offices have warned of a consolidation of the vote for Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich. Two supporters of a harsh and ultra-critical discourse that the government has not yet found how to fight effectively.
In Peronism there is also the latent idea that the polls are not correct – as has happened so many times – and that the head of government in Buenos Aires is the one who takes the place in the general elections. For Peronism, one is not identical to the other because the electorate to be sought is completely different.
What is clear in various government terminals is that while the two largest coalitions in the country are obsessed with their interns, Milei continues to grow and captivate an audience that is no longer just young and middle-class. The libertarian breaks down barriers every day.
The variation of names marching towards Casa Rosada has a direct impact on the Government’s electoral strategy. The decision on the profile of the candidates, the sector of the electorate that must be solicited or the need to generate a STEP with powerful names to have a certain volume, are part of a host of decisions that have not yet been taken.
There are just over two months left before the closing of the lists of candidates and in Peronism there is only a huge pile of doubts which, added to the absence of a negotiating table, jeopardize the course of the political project. Today, each sector plays its part, pending the movement of the three most important partners of the alliance: Alberto Fernandez, Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa.
None of them defined their role in the elections. It would not be so bad if it were not for the fact that Peronism is overwhelmed by an inflationary crisis, an unstable economy and an internal fracture that prevents it from generating minimal agreements to solve the electoral strategy. The resentment between the president and Kirchnerism is such that they have not yet succeeded in coordinating a negotiating table. They neither advance nor retreat.
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In both sectors, they assure that sooner rather than later they will sit down to agree the rules of the game for PASO. Behind this vocation, there is a growing doubt. Is the Frente de Todos able to have a competitive STEP or is it better to regroup behind a single candidate who collects the votes of the whole front?
The question arises as to whether the primary elections give rise to the presentation of candidates with low voting intentions, which end up giving an image of greater weakness in the face of society. In Peronism, they assess how to rearm electoral history in the face of the relentless growth of the libertarian outpost led by Javier Milei, but they have a definite line to defend against questions from the leader of the opposition. This is because there is no argument that crosses the entire political alliance and serves to defend the direction.
No leader gave entity to the Milei phenomenon until in the last two months the council works showed him firm in a floor of 20% of the votes. Far from decreasing from this platform, there are constituencies where their electoral flow increases and appears as a phenomenon that it is impossible to decipher with precision.
The young vote that Milei leads not only escapes Juntos por el Cambio, but also Peronism. This is how it is heard in various pro-government offices, where the most optimistic imagine an election of third parties and the most pessimistic warn that, in this economic and political context that the ruling party is going through, they will have to make big efforts to avoid third parties.
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Neither the string of negative inflation data, nor the increase in the flow of votes for Milei, nor the outbreak of the inmate in Together for Change, nor the proximity to the closing of the lists, succeeded in changing the thick dynamics of the Frente de Todos, where they continue to engage in the operation clamor and the war without trenches to weaken Alberto Fernández.
In the ruling party there are those who believe they need define a candidate as soon as possible to gather all energies around this political project and hide the interns under the carpet. Without so much uncertainty about the electoral structure, the possibility of blocking the exit of votes from space would be much greater.
The chaos of that time produced a constant leak of votes. No one bothers to hold them back as they are focused on tightening the noose to see how they will end up after what they assume will be a great battle of ideologies within the coalition.
The defeat suffered yesterday in Neuquén by the Popular Movement of Neuquén (MPN) has become a new alarm signal for the Frente de Todos. Governor-elect, rolando figueroa, was backed by the PRO and UCR in a provincial deal he made after leaving MPN. The triumph ended 60 years of provincial party hegemony. Winds of change that continue to make noise in the life of Peronism.