Inflation shakes the political agenda with a fact of reality, in front of the internals and the battles with Justice

The inflation figure published by INDEC was shocking despite the fact that no one – neither in the economic world, nor in the ruling party, nor in the opposition – expected otherwise. The reactions, also predictable, added little. In principle, tries to lower expectationson one side, and acid reviews, the other. The January CPI report summarized a 6% monthly, scored a 98.8% from year to year and added a alarming increase in the range of food and beverages, which after a few months returned to above the general average. It’s clear what light is lit on the social board. Political data, not just economic.

The overbidding of the food item, the most sensitive, was preceded by the December measure: it noted 4.7%against 3.5% of November. In January, the leap was greater: it reached the 6.8%. These are percentages that strike a blow to the basic total basket and the basic food basket, which mark stages of poverty and destitution. A drag problem, which would have worsened compared to the second half of last year.

The record high rise in prices, especially food prices, is nothing new for the politicians closest to the reality of their territories. Not only from the ruling party, but the question is how the ruling front assimilates it, focused on the fight for the assembly of the national table who summoned Alberto Fernandezunder the persistent pressure of the circle closest to Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

Expectation was and continues to be placed in the movements of Sergio Massa. The figures on the rise in the CPI of around 6 percentage points have been circulating for days in the offices of the Economy. and the minister accelerated the meat price agreement as a first reaction over the weekend, as versions of bond and rate measures circulated.

Moreover, as previously faced with the accusation of the opposition on debt levels, Gabriel Rubinstein He was again in charge of the message for try to contain expectations. On the issue of debt, the Deputy Minister had pointed the finger at Together for Change and at the same time – first and foremost – the markets. Now too: he stood his ground on questions of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy as a remedy, beyond award programs.

The most significant element was to meet the objective of a substantial drop in inflation in time. Massa had previously expressed discomfort with the effect of his own forecasts on an index between 3 and 4 point in the short term, at the beginning of the second trimester. Rubinstein argued that the policies of the current administration would be “consistent” with levels of 4% or less, he pointed to a series of factors that now worked against him and added that “towards the end of the year” monthly figures could be recorded “almost 3%”.

From the opposition, the first reaction was expressed in critical tweets of a dozen leaders, including Patricia Bullrich, Mario Negri, Martin Lousteau, Juan Manuel López and Luis Naidenoff. Some messages were ironic, others warned of social consequences. this first dam did not provide a substantive statement on the causes of economic deterioration and its inflationary expression, as well as some indicators of stagnation. The previous criticism, about debt levels, was halted and only answered on the effect the message might have on the markets. there was no discussion neither economic nor politicaldespite suggestions of destabilizing intent.

It is curious what is happening in this area. The focus on the possible consequences of this statement of opposition – which has also generated internal waves – seems alien to the foothills of a larger political state. as a negative factor on the economy. An example: the box permanent tensions for the office of government over the head of the judiciary. Other: the get bogged down of Congress activity.

These are problems that They go hand in hand. Tomorrow, the ruling party will seek to set an agenda for the process it hopes to lay out for MPs against the Court. Try to continuous wear of the Supreme Court, which will meet again at these times to discuss sensitive topicsincluding the dispute over the reduction of funds from the city of Buenos Aires.

The painting adds marked strokes of disconnection with social reality. The internals cross all the spaces. In the case of the ruling front, the economy is not the most visible issue on the surface at this point. But is at the center of the power struggle. It’s a common thread that can be seen in every movement, from references to management direction which repeats Kirchnerism and Olivier’s projectsuntil expectations around Massa.

There are elements that generate a harbor circle. In particular, the fight between Alberto Fernández and CFK, translated into fragmented postcards that add uncertainty to the election year already underway. Tomorrow, the national table of the party in power must meet. And until the last moment they continue to discuss and negotiate its meaning and integration.

Kirchnerism moved its tokens to participate but at the same time leaving Alberto Fernández in secondary place, despite its status as an organizer. He placed a minister, Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro, as negotiator with the president himself. And he anticipated that CFK and Máximo Kirchner would not attend the meeting. It would then not be a table of founding members, but a body widely represented and apparently non-executive.

A very large table and another small table? This would largely replicate more traditional party instances. The point, again, would be why. Inflation has just shaken the picture as a strong fact of reality. Wait for the political response.

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