:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/6L732VBIRFDQG5I2OI3ET2RFQE.jpg "In January, Argentina was among the 3 countries with the highest monthly inflation and with February data it would reach an annual increase of 3 digits 1")
There inflation January, which accelerated to 6% monthlyleft the Argentina in one podium of the three countries with higher price increases, only surpassed by Turkeyand at the same level as Czech Republic. The inflationary swing, which has started to strengthen again in recent months, has left Argentina on the verge of a year-on-year CPI of 100%which could be achieved with February data.
Without seasonality: what the report says that contradicts the government’s argument on the rise in inflation in January
This is a new index measured by Di Tella University that replicates the methodology of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
A survey of 38 countries interpreted by Nadine Arganaraz, an economist with the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf) after January’s official inflation figure put Argentina second in the world for monthly price change. Turkey, in the first month of the year, saw a price increase of 6.6%During this time he 6% of the CPI left Argentina a notch lower, as well as the Czech Republic, which saw a sharp rise in prices of prices utilities that have had an impact on the local price universe.
“The median value of the countries studied was 0.5% in January. If you look at the country’s inflation which is in the 25th percentile, you can see an acceleration over the past month. Inflation over the past four months was 0.4%, -0.1%, -0.2% and 0.2%, respectively. The same happened in the country which is in the 75th percentile. Inflation over the past four months was 1.2%, 0.8%, 0.4% and 0.8% respectively “, estimated Argañaraz.
The price of clothing: the government negotiates a curb in March, but the industry warns that it will increase due to the change of seasons
The sector is discussing with the Commerce Secretary the details of the deal, which will last until June. Winter products that are not continuous will reach windows with large increases
“Inflation in Argentina reached 6.3% per month in October, 4.9% in November, 5.1% in December and 6.0% in January. The gap between Argentine monthly inflation and the median of the sample considered was 5.5 percentage points in January, higher than in previous months. With January data, Argentina consolidates inflation annual average of 58.7% over the past four years,” the report says.
Of the countries surveyed by the report, it is evident that although the majority had positive monthly inflation, seven countries had deflation: Spain, United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and the Netherlands. Only eight countries, on the other hand, recorded a monthly price increase of more than 1.0%.
More expensive wine: they predict a rise in prices before the lowest harvest in history
According to the forecasts of the National Institute of Viticulture, this year, production will be 40% lower than the average of the last two decades. How this will impact values for the end consumer.
On the podium where Argentina finds itself comfortably in the first place in the survey of 38 countries carried out by Argañaraz is in that of the iyear-on-year inflation. “Given the interannual variation of January 2023, Argentina stands out in the sample considered (98.8%) and Turkey (57.7%). Next comes a second group of three countries with inflation above the 20% YoY (Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania). At the other extreme, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Bolivia and China recorded year-on-year inflation below 5%“, he assured.
The sample includes Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Korea, Denmark, Slovenia, Spain, United States States, Estonia, France, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Iceland, Israel, Italy. , Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Norway, Netherlands, Paraguay, Peru, Portugal, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Switzerland, Turkey and Uruguay.
Argentina, with data approaching February, could exceed 100% year-on-year inflation. An article from Iran, Mediterranean Foundationcalculated that with monthly data of 5.3% In the second month of the year, the Argentine economy will record an annual three-digit price increase.
“The impact of the price of meat on the cost of living will be seen in the indices of February and March, after a rise in wholesale market farm value of almost 50% so far this year. In the event that the February CPI is equal to or higher than 5.3%, then Argentina will have returned to three-digit inflation in the interannual measure,” Ieral estimated.
“From December 2018 to today, the consumer price index accumulates an increase of 553%at an equivalent monthly rate of 3.9%, while the weighted combination of salaries, exchange rates and fees (called cost inflation) increased by 455% over the same period, at a monthly rate of 3 ,6%, he assured that the study center based in Cordoba.
“The inflationary acceleration of the last period recognizes various aspects of the monetary side. Not only the issue of tax origin itself intended to cover the deficit, but also the payment of interest on remunerated commitments of the BCRA (which constitutes an autonomous factor of monetary expansion), to which has since been added the middle of last year the reimbursement by the Central Office of Treasury Bonds on the secondary market”, explained Iéral.
The latest Central Bank expectations survey between banks, advisory firms and investment funds concluded that the inflation expected by the stock market FEBRUARY It is 5.5%and that it will experience a further acceleration to 6% in March, with monthly figures above 5.5% at least until next July.
Continue reading: