Paris, February 15 The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the world oil market will be sufficiently supplied in the first half of the year as supply will exceed demand, but recognizes that things could change quickly if there were further cuts by Russia from those announced.
In its monthly report published on Wednesday, the IEA anticipates an increase in demand of 2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 101.9 million, a new record which would be 1.4 million above the level of 2019. , the last financial year before the outbreak of the covid crisis. out.
Most of this additional consumption will come from the Asia-Pacific zone (1.6 million) and in particular from China, which alone will absorb 900,000 barrels per day more than in 2022, largely linked to its reopening after the end of the zero covid policy.
In OECD countries, the demand for crude oil will increase very moderately (390,000 barrels more per day), that is to say at a rate much lower than that observed in 2022 (1.2 million).
If we look at the evolution by sector of activity, aviation will be, by far, the main driver of this global growth, with an increase in the cost of kerosene equivalent from 1.1 million barrels per day to a total of 7.2 million, which would mean recovering 90% of the level he had in 2019.
On the supply side, the agency – which brings together most of the OECD members – predicts an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day, mainly in the hands of the United States, Brazil, Norway, from Canada and Guyana, which will pump record amounts of crude oil, more than offsetting cuts from Russia.
It also anticipates an increase in extractions from two fundamental members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, associated with Moscow), Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which will write off part of their excess capacity, estimated at 3 ,4 million. barrels per day.
Overall, the contribution of the OPEC+ bloc (with Russia) should decrease by 590,000 barrels per day. But if we exclude Russia, the balance would be positive at 460,000 barrels.
The IEA considers that Russia’s announcement that it will cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in March in response to the price cap that the G7 and the EU have imposed on its crude could be a way of trying to increase, precisely, their selling price.
Because due to Western sanctions on its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has to sell its oil at very advantageous prices.
The authors of the study point out that the Russian budget (which is largely supplied by hydrocarbon revenues) is based on the assumption of a sale of its black gold at 70.10 dollars a barrel.
But in January, its exports averaged $49.48, while North Sea oil was quoted at $82.
The IEA recognizes that the production and exports of Russian crude have not been particularly affected by Western sanctions thanks to the fact that the flows have been redirected in particular to Asia.
In January, its extractions were 8.2 million barrels per day, just 160,000 below levels before the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.
However, the embargo and the price cap imposed on it by the G7 and the EU are making themselves felt: in the first month of this year, the revenues from its exports are estimated at 13 billion dollars, higher than those of December, but 36% lower than the previous year. ECE
and or