REUTERS/Luis Cortes

In the first half of February 2023, general inflation was 7.76%, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported on Thursday, although the price of certain foods such as eggs and chicken, in addition to domestic gas, continued to rise.

The national consumer price index (INPC) stood at 7.76% on an annual basis, below the 7.88% recorded in the second half of January.

The data breaks with two months of consecutive increases, after the index of 7.91% for all of January and that of 7.82% last December, when inflation had its highest annual close in 22 years and so far this century.

Inflation in Mexico moderated in the first half of February, although it remains well above the Banco de México’s target, reinforcing the central bank’s forecast that a further hike in the key interest rate could happen in March, although on a smaller scale than the previous one.

Within the underlying subgroup, commodities were up 0.40% in the fortnight and 10.79% on the year, according to the Inegi report.

In non-core, agricultural prices fell 0.24% compared to the immediately preceding period, but rose 9.71% compared to the same period last year.

Energy and tariffs authorized by the Government increased by 0.49% in the fortnight and by 2.95% over the year.

The price index for the minimum consumption basket, made up of 176 products and services, rose by 0.3% in the fortnight and by 8.28% on an annual basis.

In its latest monetary policy announcement, Banco de México raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) to a record high of 11%, beating expectations.

The Board of Directors justified the increase due to a complex inflationary scenario and anticipated that in its next opinion of March 30, it could apply a lower increase.

Last week Banxico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath said the forecast did not imply a commitment and that the final decision would depend on how economic data develops, primarily inflation, which has no succeeded in falling to the 3% objective. +/- one percentage point.

Since the central bank began its current restrictive cycle in June 2021, it has hiked its rate by 700 bps and analysts expect another quarter-percentage-point hike in March, according to a survey by financial group Citibanamex.

In the first 15 days of February alone, prices rose 0.30%, while the benchmark index posted a rate of 0.35%. The items with the biggest rises during the fortnight were eggs and domestic LPG, while tomatoes and serrano peppers were the ones that fell the most, INEGI said.

Stock image.  A vendor places eggs in his business at the wholesale market "supply center" in Mexico.  January 11, 2019. REUTERS/Daniel Becerril
Stock image. A vendor places eggs in his business at the “Central de Abastos” wholesale market in Mexico City. January 11, 2019. REUTERS/Daniel Becerril

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