In the first half of February 2023, general inflation was 7.76%, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported on Thursday, although the price of certain foods such as eggs and chicken, in addition to domestic gas, continued to rise.
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The national consumer price index (INPC) stood at 7.76% on an annual basis, below the 7.88% recorded in the second half of January.
The data breaks with two months of consecutive increases, after the index of 7.91% for all of January and that of 7.82% last December, when inflation had its highest annual close in 22 years and so far this century.
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Inflation in Mexico moderated in the first half of February, although it remains well above the Banco de México’s target, reinforcing the central bank’s forecast that a further hike in the key interest rate could happen in March, although on a smaller scale than the previous one.
During the first half of February 2023, general inflation was 7.76%. The bi-monthly change in the national consumer price index was 0.30%.
By component, annual inflation was:
8.38%, Underlying
5.93%, non-underlying#INPC: https://t.co/ZcB3JWvENn pic.twitter.com/NrrEP3PyyE
– INEGI INFORM (@INEGI_INFORMS) February 23, 2023
Within the underlying subgroup, commodities were up 0.40% in the fortnight and 10.79% on the year, according to the Inegi report.
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In non-core, agricultural prices fell 0.24% compared to the immediately preceding period, but rose 9.71% compared to the same period last year.
Energy and tariffs authorized by the Government increased by 0.49% in the fortnight and by 2.95% over the year.
The price index for the minimum consumption basket, made up of 176 products and services, rose by 0.3% in the fortnight and by 8.28% on an annual basis.
In its latest monetary policy announcement, Banco de México raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) to a record high of 11%, beating expectations.
The Board of Directors justified the increase due to a complex inflationary scenario and anticipated that in its next opinion of March 30, it could apply a lower increase.
Last week Banxico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath said the forecast did not imply a commitment and that the final decision would depend on how economic data develops, primarily inflation, which has no succeeded in falling to the 3% objective. +/- one percentage point.
Since the central bank began its current restrictive cycle in June 2021, it has hiked its rate by 700 bps and analysts expect another quarter-percentage-point hike in March, according to a survey by financial group Citibanamex.
In the first 15 days of February alone, prices rose 0.30%, while the benchmark index posted a rate of 0.35%. The items with the biggest rises during the fortnight were eggs and domestic LPG, while tomatoes and serrano peppers were the ones that fell the most, INEGI said.