Argentinian bonds suffered a resounding fall because the world placed them, in the face of the regional banking crisis in the United States, in the sector of risky assets. Global debt bonds saw near 5% crashes, which didn’t happen in the rest of the region. This is why country risk jumped 117 units (+5.3%) to 2,323 basis points, a peak they had not reached since December 7th.
“The central issue is how quickly the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate, beyond the level. Silicon Valley Bank fell due to rate mismanagement, which is supposed to be what bankers The rise in US Treasury yields has prompted people to pull money out of the banks in search of better returns.The problem is that it surprises them with higher than desired inflation. Next week there will be a meeting of the Federal Reserve and they will have to define their commitment to continue to fight inflation, but without noise in the financial system,” said Leonardo Chialva of Delphos Investment.
“Fortunately for Argentina, this crisis developed in the United States and caused a weakening of the dollar, which usually does not happen. Moreover, gold has appreciated very strongly and commodities could have a less unfavorable price outlook. Hopefully it lasts a few months and doesn’t reach major situations. Argentina has a very big challenge ahead of it because soy adds to an unfavorable context. I am encouraged to believe that the exchange rate differential will increase and Argentinian assets will decline until this is resolved,” said Leonardo Chialva of Delphos Investment.
Alt-dollars had a busy day with trades worth over $200 million. The Central Bank intervened in the market despite the limitations. This is why the GDF30D bond gained 0.2%. It was a rise in isolation and it was due to BCRA takeovers. Thus, the MEP ended with a slight decrease of $1.13 (-0.3%) at $379.51 and the cash with settlement increased by $1.81 (+0.5%) at 395.50. $ after hitting $400. It will be difficult in the future for the Centrale to control the dollar, because the IMF must approve the to renouncer (sorry) for the unmet targets, he will be prohibited from redeeming bonds that have already cost him $600 million in reserves.+
The Free Dollar had an initial reaction that took it to $380 but then stabilized at $377, $4 higher than the value of the previous wheel. In the wholesale market, the Central Bank insisted on its lagging dollar policy, which closed higher by $1.13 at $201.87. It was a devaluation of 37 cents a day.
“Everything indicates that the inflation figure is going to be around 6%, which means that the devaluation rate is going to be lower and, compared to the monetary policy rate, it would be in the middle of inflation. It must consider that not everyone can be placed at this rate. We are moving towards a complicated scenario. Although the agreement with the IMF says that it is moving towards positive real rates, we will have to see in what direction because individuals do not have access to the rates with which the Central Bank remunerates the banks through the Leliqs. Moreover, the drought of the dollars will continue and the return of the soybean dollar is almost certain, although it is not known when ” , said financial analyst and agribusiness specialist Salvador Vitelli.
“Noting the rates paid by the Treasury, which are higher than those of the Central Bank, it would not be strange for it to raise them. Also, by the end of the year, there will be an acceleration in dollar hedging,” he added.
Concerning the agricultural sector, he indicated that “the prices of soya are completely shattered, just like corn and the situation is unfortunate because we have a State which eviction, absorbing all financing at unpaid rates. Therefore, not only are we going to have the worst crop of the century, but it’s also going to be unfunded and they’re going to be compromised for the upcoming campaign. »
In the meantime, the monetary authority had to sell $87 million, but reserves were unaffected by the fall of the dollar against major world currencies, gold’s rise of almost 3% and the revaluation yuan. At closing, reserves increased by $121 million to $38.320 million.
“The wheel was very volatile. It looked like there was going to be a good open as Sunday the New York Stock Exchange futures were very green. But the opening was bad. There were big banks that started out with 20% losses, like Charles Schwab. It looked like this nervousness from the banks was going to trickle down to some big players. Because until then the conflict had been limited to regional banks and had not reached the big ones. In general, the market was risk (risk aversion) and which has been suffered by Argentinian ADRs, Brazilian stocks and everything that is a risk component. The safest assets such as US Treasuries, gold, silver, developed country bonds and even Latin American bonds performed very well. Now we have to wait and see if it calms down or if the crisis spreads to other banks and other bigger players,” financial analyst Franco Tealdi said.
Peso bonds had an inconsistent day, but with gains of up to 1.40%, dual bonds that hedge against inflation and devaluation stood out.
Equities suffered from the global bad mood. With activity of $5,540 million, the S&P Merval fell 4.73% in pesos and 5.2% in dollars.
Businesses in ADRs – participation certificates listed on the New York Stock Exchange and purchased in pesos at spot price with settlement – reached $9,926 million. There was an almost absolute predominance of falls. The most notable are those of YPF (-6.9%), Despegar (-5.4%) and BBVA (-5%).
For today, the tension should continue. The local market will follow in the footsteps of the American who is keeping the world in suspense as problems are expected in other regional banks.