Financial day: the free dollar rose to 378 pesos and the BCRA sold 66 million dollars in the market

The free dollar resumed its bullish trajectory on Wednesday, after nearly two months of sideways movement, in parallel with the positive evolution of parities exchanged on the stock exchange, where the “cash with settlement” reached a record close to 380 pesos.

The dollarization of portfolios is also linked to financial volatility, at a time when US Treasury yields have reached higher levels since 2007. With this adverse scenario, Argentine stocks rebounded strongly, but bonds in dollars fell sharply and the country’s risk was close to 2,100 basis points.

He advanced free dollar seven pesos or 1.9% for sale, at $378, in the biggest daily jump since Jan. 17. With a big dollar gaining 28 cents at $199.95, the currency spread was 89%.

The “blue” dollar then gained three pesos in March, after a negative February in which it lost six pesos. In the year 2023, it records a rise of 32 pesos or 9.3%, still lagging behind runaway inflation.

Stock market dollars closed at record highs. He “cash with settlement” ended at $379.34 with the Global 2030 bond (GD30C), while the MEP dollar hit $371.64 with the Bonar 2030 (AL30D).

The amount traded on the spot segment of the wholesale market reached USD 394.2 million, with sales to the Central Bank for $66 million.

BCRA records March net sales of $199 million in MULC and comes from February sales of $890 million, an all-time high for the second month of the year, due to lower agricultural sales due to drought . During the year 2023, the negative balance of the Central in the MULC reaches 1,281 million dollars.

“Drought, a failed buyback program, the effects on the soybean dollar market and the inability to reach a REPO agreement make it difficult to meet the international reserves target for next March – and for the ‘year?-, which would favor a renegotiation of the agreement between the government and the IMF, “said the consulting firm EcoGo. “The key point would be when and how much net international reserves should be accumulated, not payments to the agency,” he said.

This Wednesday, the S&P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange was beginning to recover, with up 1.8% to 250,911 points, still far from the nominal record of 267,000 points in pesos reached in January. The panel of flagship stocks maintains in 2023 an increase of 24.2% in pesos and 12.7% in dollars “counted with cash”.

Among ADRs and shares of Argentine companies that are traded in dollars on the New York stock exchanges, the rises predominated. The banking segment stood out, with profits for Banco Francés (+5.6%), Banco Macro (+4.7%) and Grupo Galicia (+4%).

“In particular, the flag oil company YPF will present its balance sheet for the year 2022 and will also celebrate its 30 years of listing on the New York Stock Exchange. Good results are expected after the growth in production over the past 20 years. Quite the opposite is happening with fixed income securities, which are always affected by the international context, and dollar bonds fall across the curve,” he commented. Leonel Buccoloaccount manager at Rava Bursátil.

Argentine dollar bonds are trading with a steep drop of 2% on average, according to the benchmark for foreign law global securities on Wall Street, with a countries at risk which climbed 54 basis points, to which 2,098 dots Bases at 6:15 p.m.

In recent stock markets, there has been a decline in the price of US Treasuries as well as a rise in yield rates, now at their highest since 2007. The rate of Treasury The 10-year bond topped 4% a year, while the two-year Treasury yielded more than 5%. When this yield curve inversion occurs – more is paid for lower debt duration– is the unequivocal anticipation of a short-term economic recession.

“The short end (of the debt curve) is exploding and the long end is constant. so it continues to invert the curve in a market that anticipates a recession, potentially becoming more likely,” he said. . german fermoResponsible for the Strategy of the IEB Group (Investing in the Stock Market).

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