Financial day: Argentinian stocks listed on Wall Street climbed 9%

Argentinian stocks and bonds traded with a mixed price bias on Monday. While private stocks reacted with sizeable gains, in a favorable environment due to Wall Street’s rises, bonds fell, with the expectation of a cash injection from the Treasury’s debt buyback.

Official support for dollar bonds is made difficult by the decline in agricultural sales in the MULC, which unbalances the supply and strength of permanent sales in the hands of the Central Bank.

Stocks and the free dollar rise and seek equilibrium values, at a time when market doubts are centered on the balance of the BCRA

He free dollar earned two pesos in the day, to $379 for sale, reducing the loss to two pesos since early February. Recall that the free dollar closed January at 381 pesos. In 2023, the note offered on the informal market accumulates an increase of 33 pesos or 9.5%.

With the wholesale dollar rising by 1.14 pesos to $191.65 for sale, the exchange rate spread was 97.8%.

He BCRA completed the first big wheel of the week with sales for $48 million to meet market needs, in a session with cash (cash) business for only $ 168.6 million. Thus, the entity contributed 28.5% of the currencies offered on the market.

“So far this month, the BCRA has a sell balance in the foreign exchange market of more than $400 million, and it is also losing reserves for the purchase of bonds,” he said. . Reuters Roberto Gerettoanalyst at Fundcorp.

“Thus, it is more than 2 billion dollars below the reserve target for the end of March of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). So it’s all set for there to be more inventory and a new soybean dollar,” Geretto continued.

During the last 14 rounds of operations, since January 25 -inclusive-, the selling balance of the BCRA has accumulated 764 million dollars in the MULC. The monetary entity maintained a negative result in February which doubles this figure, some 481 million dollars due to its foreign exchange intervention in nine operational cycles.

a mission of Monetary Fund International (IMF) is carrying out a review of the country’s accounts, as part of the agreement signed a year ago which sets targets for the accumulation of BCRA reserves and the financing of the budget deficit, among other objectives. The goal is for international reserves to increase by $4 billion this year.

Analysts expect the government to introduce incentives for agricultural exports by offering a preferential exchange rate, in line with the so-called “soybean dollars I and II” of last September and December.

“The government is faced with the need to pull another ‘rabbit out of the hat’ like a ‘$3 soybean’, REPO loan or some other similar measure,” consultancy Delphos Investment said in a report.

“Another option could be to formally request a to renouncer to the March Reserve Goal Fund due to the extreme drought the campaign is facing and then implement a soybean dollar in the second quarter,” he added.

The first stock market index S&P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange improved by 3.1%, to 257,625 units, after gaining 4.4% over the past week. Thus, the panel of flagship stocks maintains a rise in the peso of 27% in 2023.

On Wall Street, ADRs and shares of Argentine companies that trade in dollars advanced up to 8.8%, with Cresud in the lead. Improvements in Grupo Financiero Galicia (+6.5%) and Banco Francés (+6.2%) also stood out, with YPF gaining 4% to $12.04.

“In line and in line with our expectations, the S&P Merval Index is much higher, but the rise with laddered ranges should have slowed down and it took the necessary pause by interrupting the ‘bullish rally’ with a breakout,” said- he explained. . Jorge Fediotechnical analyst at Clave Bursátil.

“Having said that, from our view and our opinion, ‘it is necessary to go home’ with the investments, given that our stock market is playing very bullish music, carried by the self-esteem after the World Cup, as driven by the ‘waiting for 2023’ before the change of government that allows for the election year,” Fedio said.

“The key to the week ahead will be the January inflation data that INDEC will release on Tuesday. We believe the price change will mark an acceleration from December and put pressure on interest rates and the official exchange rate devaluation rate,” said settlement and clearing agent Cohen. “The BCRA is selling more and more currencies and international reserves have deepened the fall amid consolidating stagflation,” he said.

Dollar bonds traded with an average decline of 0.4%, according to the Wall Street-traded Globals benchmark. He countries at risk of JP Morgan advanced five units for Argentina, in 1,966 stitches Base at 6:10 p.m.

Foreign markets are awaiting US inflation data this week, which could guide the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike strategy. indicators of Wall Street they ended up gains in a range of 1.1 to 1.5 percent.

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