Eggs more expensive due to bird flu: what will happen to the price of chicken and what is the situation in Argentina

The local poultry industry is on alert before the appearance of the first case of avian flu in the history of Argentina. The outbreak of the disease was confirmed last Wednesday by the Secretary of Agriculture, Juan Jose Bahilloalthough he said that at the moment the situation does not complicate production, consumption and exports.

However, uncertainty is very present. So far and according to World Organization for Animal HealthJust over 100 million poultry died or were culled from bird flu between early October and February 3.

Yesterday in dialogue with this medium, Juan Jose Bahillo confirmed that bird flu after carrying out the genetic sequence studies therefore showed that it is “highly pathogenic”. And I add:It doesn’t change the work we’ve done, because the protocol we put in place knowing that we would find this scenario. It has been confirmed that the disease is much more contagious and much more deadly in birds, and makes us more vigilant so that it does not reach production systems, that is, in poultry farms, fattening chickens or eggs. If that happened, we would be in a more critical situation.

The case of bird flu in the country adds to several others that have been detected in the region, such as in Uruguay, UNITED STATES, Ecuador, Colombia there Bolivia. Specialists also say that the disease is fast approaching Brazil, the world’s largest chicken exporter. In a context where said country has no officially confirmed cases of avian flu, an epidemic would have major consequences on the supply of poultry meat in the world.

And given the advance of the disease on the American continent, the problem also generates movements in international egg prices. In the United States, they rose by 70% year on year last January, the most pronounced increase over 12 months in four decades, in a context where global food inflation had been suggesting a scenario of moderation for several months. This was reflected by Bloomberg.

As for chicken prices, they could follow the same path as eggs if bird flu hits poultry in Brazil, which is the world’s second largest producer after the United States. Hector Mottaa poultry entrepreneur, commented GlobeLiveMedia that “in the United States, between last October and January, the price of eggs quintupled and they had to import them from Mexico. Today, almost the whole continent has bird flu. As far as our country is concerned, I believe that the sanitary status that Argentina has achieved in the last 25 years, with birds in controlled environment cages, must be preserved.

For its part, Javier Pridapresident of the Argentine Chamber of Poultry Producers (CAPIA), told this media that there are currently more than 150 million laying hens slaughtered in the world since March 2022 and until now.

“Which does there is less production and demand continues to be sustained. Unfortunately, many people need access to an animal protein like eggs, which is very accessible and inexpensive. This means that in some places they cannot find it. In England, consumption is rationalizing and in the United States, there are areas where non-purchase is encouraged. And they went from 4 to 4.5 dollars to 11 dollars. It’s a complex situation.”

Faced with this scenario, Prida added that “if the avian influence appears in Argentina, it is possible that there will be price corrections and in fact today we are behind in egg prices. This delay is around 8-10%. Unfortunately, we always lag behind inflation. And we understand that production levels, if affected, will immediately impact the selling price to the consumer. few years ago, if you asked an egg producer and exporter what price they wanted on the international market, I would say between $6.50 and $8. Today, those $8 prices are way over the top”.

In addition, he argued that in the local context, the production faces factors that work against the business, such as the exchange rate, the high tax burden and that there is no pre-financing of the exports. “Seeing the need of the producer, he takes it out and sells it as soon as he harvests, because he needs the money to buy balanced feed. Hopefully we can get some reduction in VAT, because that’s the only animal protein that pays 21% and lowering it to 10.5″ will allow us to export more and have the egg as a future project for the country”.

Prida also recognized that the country has enormous potential. For this, he demanded measures in favor of the sector. “We need to be more honest about the exchange rate to be more competitive and generate more labor. We have to thank the government for removing withholding taxes on exports, as it has generated 114% growth since 2021. With minimal action since December 2020, it has enabled volume and price growth at levels generous “.

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