:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/HF2HI7MMRUQOZMX3TT6H6A4RCQ.jpg "Due to the lack of dollars for inputs, industrial activity started the year with a decline")
Official and private measurements show that the economy at the beginning of 2023 marked a continuation in the trend that December had shown, with a retreat in the monthly comparison. A report from the Ministry of Industry indicates that manufacturing activity fell 1.3% in January compared to December, which was already recorded by market studies.
After the economy improves in 2022, they forecast a hit for this year due to drought and lack of dollars
The market adjusts its expectations for aggregate activity downwards, estimating an expansion of 0.5% for 2023, far from the government’s most optimistic projection
According to a report by the Center for Productive Studies (CEP XXI), which depends on the industrial portfolio of the Ministry of the Economy, an anticipated measurement carried out by its technicians on the basis of the wholesale consumption of energy supplied by Cammesa, in the first month of the year industrial activity fell compared to December beyond that in terms Annual there was an improvement.
With regard to this last indicator, progress has been 4.1% against 2022 and 7.3% in comparison with 2019, the year before the pandemic. The Ministry of Economy stressed that this 4.1% improvement “is the best start to the year for the industry since 2017” and that “it is the second year of growth after three previous years of decline in industrial activity. Of the 16 industrial sectors, 14 increased compared to 2019 and all did so compared to 2021,” they pointed out from the Palacio de Hacienda.
Economic activity fell for the fourth consecutive month and recorded its first year-on-year decline in December
The poor results of agriculture, manufacturing industry and trade explain most of the decline. In the year-to-date, there was an improvement of 5.2%
When analyzing the monthly measure, the official report stated that “this may be due to the drought which affected the grinding oilseeds -in January, the quantities of grinding fell by one 22% from year to year and 15.8% months- and the production of biodiesel, which had an impact on the chemical industry -the latter recorded a monthly drop in electricity consumption for 1.4% year after year-,” the report states.
Analyzed by sector, the CEP XXI measured that a sector like machinery and equipment in January, it registered a contraction of 0.4% compared to last year, although it increased by 2.7% compared to December. Among foods, advance data has led this official body to conclude that the element fell 2% compared to December but improved by 1.5% in interannual terms. He attributed the monthly decline to “the strong contraction that has been recorded in the sharpening the impact of drought.
For the chemical productswhile the information that derives from the use of electrical energy shows that it has fallen in both measures: interannual (-5.6%) and intermonthly (-1.4%, which would also imply the seventh fall successively measured in this way. Finally, with regard to aluminum and cast iron In metals, there was a strong year-on-year expansion of 24.3% and 9.5% from December.
Despite the slowdown in recent months, they predict the economy can still avoid recession
These are the most optimistic projections: activity could avoid a further decline as long as inflation does not accelerate further and wages can support the level of consumption. What do the bleakest predictions say from the other side?
A private measure already warned of a slow start for the industry in 2023. A report by consulting firm Orlando J. Ferreres “in the first month of the year, the industry managed to record a lead of 2.9% to the extent year on year, although progress is more related to the loose start which we observed in January of last year only with a real improvement,” they mentioned.
“In fact, the measure without seasonality recorded a decline in the industry of 1.5% compared to December. In any case, the evolution during the first two months of the year is subject to high volatility due to the plant stoppages which alternate in the different manufacturing sectors during this period, ”says the report.
“For example, in the automotive industry, some holiday shutdowns and line changes were brought forward to December, so the production level in January this year was 46% higher than the same month last year. For the coming months, our base scenario anticipates a bearish trajectory for the progress of industrial activity, affected by the drop in domestic demand, the lack of foreign exchange and a very fragile and politically uncertain macroeconomic context,” said OJF.
other reports they relativized the negative start of the industry and even some pointed to an increase compared to December. The Argentine Industrial Union (UIA), for example, assured that “the year began with a good level of activity of the previous year but with a weak statistical brake and a visible slowdown of manufacturing”.
“Given the election year and the macroeconomic challenges ahead, the situation will continue to be centered on the exchange differenceFinally international reserves and the import controls, which will condition the dynamics of the activity. There are concerns about restrictions on access to foreign currency throughout 2023, added to the decline in currency settlement expected for the current year due to the impact of the drought “and the soybean dollar, have they pointed out.
For its part, the FIEL Foundation has directly shown a 2.2% improvement in January compared to December, “alternating the sign over the last three months, putting industrial production 5.6% below the level reached last April,” he mentioned in a recent report.
“The indicators that allow us to anticipate reversion of the contraction phase do not provide conclusive signs, while the diffusion of the sectors which show growth in the last quarter is the weakest since last May”, continued FIEL.
“The near-term outlook continues to show currency shortage as the main obstacle to the development of industrial activity. At the same time, companies’ indebtedness to their foreign suppliers and parent companies to support the import of inputs, parts and parts, has reached a level that seems unlikely to increase,” mentioned this study center.
In addition to the industrial panorama, some design offices began to measure what was the beginning in general terms for the economic activity. For Ferreres, “in the first month of the year, economic activity grew by 1.8% per year, while the seasonally adjusted measure estimated a contraction of 1.2% andcompared to December.
In this sense, “among the sectors, the mining and quarrying sector stands out again, driven mainly by the production of the Vaca Muerta basin in Neuquén, which continues to break records for oil and gas production”. On the other hand, hard hit by the drought, the agricultural sector adds a new month with negative double-digit annual records,” he continued.
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