Due to the extension of the drought, there has been a drastic downward correction in the projections for the soybean and maize harvest

The drought experienced by the Argentina the last few months have caused losses so great that they are very difficult to quantify. According to a report prepared by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR)this season 7.5 million tonnes less will be obtained than those initially planned for the military and for him but.

The study underlines that the country will obtain during the 2022/2023 harvest a production close to the 27,021,901 tons of soybeans, the lowest value in the last decade. This situation represents a worsening of what was calculated a month ago, when the same entity projected a harvest of 34.5 million tons.

If the latest estimate (27 million tonnes) is confirmed, the drop in production will be around 37.6% compared to the previous season, when 43.3 million tonnes of soybeans were produced, according to official data. . This is a result very far from what was expected at the start of the campaign.

“Argentina is suffering from an unprecedented climatic scenario in modern agriculture. With the cut of 7.5 million tonnes in the projection of the soybean harvest, 45% of the production expected at the start of the campaign has already been lost. The March figure leaves the 2022/23 cycle as the worst harvest in the last 15 campaigns, even falling well below 2008/09 (31.8 million tonnes),” they explained from the Rosario Stock Exchange.

For specialists, with no change in the climate scenario in sight, further downward corrections cannot be ruled out In the coming months. “The number of hectares that are not treated for weeds and pests is alarming, as are the hectares that have gone dry over the past three weeks. This is very marked in second-order soybeans, but rapid deterioration is also seen in first-order soybeans,” they said.

This situation is clearly reflected in the number of hectares lost. Specialists estimate that some 2.6 million hectares planted with soy could not be harvested in the 2022/23 season.

“This is a new record that marks the brutal drought that our country continues to suffer. The area lost would double the previous record, that of 2017/18, when 1.3 million ha would not have been harvested. Unfortunately, it should be noted that in the current scenario of massive losses and without prospects of a drastic change in climate forecasts in much of the Pampa region, the figure could soon exceed the level of 3 million hectares”, have they stated.

The negative outlook is consolidated in a scenario that does not offer much change in climate. “The beginning of March, far from bringing a change of scenery, maintains the presence of very high temperatures (record maximums for the month of March) and low volume rains and erratic distribution”, a-t- he explains. Alfredo Elorriagaconsultant of the Strategy Guide for Agriculture (GEA) prepared by the BCR.

According to the report, estimated yields for late sowing of but they collapsed during the definition stages, because they occurred under completely unfavorable conditions. The hectares that are drying up and becoming lost are also beginning to take on more importance every day.

The positive point is that in a good part of the Northwest Argentina (NOA) there was quite a bit of rain. Meanwhile, the western part of the region PampeanWest of Cordobathe north of the pampas there San Luis received moderate rainfall.

However, despite the partial improvement in climatic conditions, the yield estimate also saw a drop of 7.5 million tonnes between February and March.

Thus, a maize production volume of 35 million tonnes is estimated this year, ie 35% less than what was forecast at the start of the campaign. “The estimated yield for March is 57.79 quintals per hectare and this is the third worst national yield recorded since 2008/09,” they concluded from the RBC.

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