Drugs, the new scenario

106,000 deaths from drug overdoses in the United States in 2021. During the Vietnam War, which lasted just over 10 years, a total of 58,200 US Army soldiers died. The scale of the overdose death epidemic is creating new foreign policy conditions in the United States, if we in the region do not understand this, we are going to have serious, very serious problems.

A few days ago, the former Mexican ambassador to the United States Martha Barcena wrote a column illustrating the new complexity of the war on drugs and how it will affect his country’s relationship with its northern neighbor. When we recount the new legislative initiatives and the currents of opinion that have arisen in the United States in recent months in search of means to counter this crisis, we remain horrified. Let’s not tell lies, sooner or later some of them will materialize.

The Ambassador writes about 21 US State Attorneys (each state chooses its own attorney, being a federal country) who on February 8 asked the President Joe Biden and his secretary of state Anthony Blink take extraordinary measures against drug trafficking fentanyl coming from Mexico. They are asked to classify the Sinaloa, Jalisco and Nueva Generación cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations” for posing a threat to national security and public health; They also ask to classify fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction.

There not for the thing. The ambassador writes that the former United States Attorney General William Barr He called for declaring these cartels as narco-terrorist organizations and using direct military action against them with or without the authorization of the Mexican government. In legislative matters, two representatives in the House of the Republican Party, And Crenshawfrom Texas (who also grew up in Colombia) and Michael Waltzof Florida, introduced a resolution that authorizes the United States government to use military force to identify, combat, and eliminate nine cartels where, in addition to the above, there are also The Michoacan family and the northwest poster.

Those who see what happened as the same thing, and simply label it as part of traditional American interventionism, are wrong. This growing feeling in the United States and which, moreover, goes beyond bipartisan clashes, has behind it 106,000 deaths in one year, communities devastated by drugs and a brutal political effect, which is rapidly changing the attitude voters on this issue.

Of course, the political parties have started to listen to this sense of pain, anger and calls for justice against those responsible and for a political toughening up against those they accuse of condoning drug trafficking, almost entirely of Mexico and Colombia. What happens in the United States with this issue involves a game-changer with immense implications for foreign policy.

106,000 deaths due to a mixture of fentanyl and cocaine is no small feat that can be justified as yet another example of the failure of the fight against drugs. This is no longer an ideological or public policy debate, there are 106,000 faces, and families behind those faces, which fundamentally changes the discussion, since the political effect of this epidemic is already beginning to be felt.

This does not mean that an attack by the Navy SEALs in a house in Sinaloa or Bunaventura in search of a drug kingpin, or that a drone directed from Las Vegas fired a missile at a camp of dissidents in the FARC or ELN, immersed in drug trafficking. But this scenario can no longer be ruled out, especially in countries that do not really collaborate in the fight against drugs.

The resolution of the Republican congressmen will surely be approved in the House in a few weeks. It is very likely that it will not pass the Senate, although the kidnapping of four Americans and the murder of two of them while crossing the border in Matamoros could draw the support of some Democratic senators, which would make pass the resolution, probably forcing a veto from the President, if that happens.

But even if the resolution is not passed, for now, if 100,000 deaths a year continue to add up, sooner or later this presidential power to attack cartels and traffickers like Al-Qaeda will become a reality. , and in a scenario like this, and with Colombia abandoning its commitments in the fight against drugs, as President Gustavo Petro is doing, the country will also have to face this reality.

As this dramatic scenario unfolds, severe action will surely come against officials and politicians at all levels who, by action or omission, promote drug trafficking. Judges, prosecutors, police, the military, members of Congress, ministers, and even, in extreme cases, presidents, will come under different scrutiny. The Kingpin Act gives the United States the power to sanction these individuals and make it nearly impossible for them to live socially and economically outside of their environment.

I remember as Ambassador to the United States when President Donald Trump floated, in a meeting with President Iván Duque, the idea of ​​fumigating coca crops with napalm; bomb them, he said. I thought that was crazy, and no one approved of such barbarism. Today, I’m not so sure that such a scenario is impossible, as I thought then. With more than 100,000 deaths per year, nothing can be ruled out, and those who play near the fire can get burned.