Without the soybean dollar, the trade balance showed a deficit of almost $500 million in January

In the first month of the year, exports reached $4,900 million and imports $5,384 million. It was the first commercial red since last August

In January, Argentina fell into a trade deficit.

The Argentinian Comercial Exchange (ICA) reached a negative balance of 484 million USD in the first month of 2023, after recording a surplus of USD 1,102 million in December.

The wholesale dollar rises to 195.35 pesos

The dollar in the wholesale market began trading at $195.35 per unit, about 40 cents above the previous close. The official exchange rate registers an increase of 18.19 pesos or 10.3% so far in 2023.

However, the official dollar is the one that rises the most.
However, the official dollar is the one that rises the most.

Exhaust valves to increase pressure

The measures that have been taken so far tend to be safety valves on imbalances whose pressure will continue to build until they are resolved.

Dollars (REUTERS/Dado Ruvic)
Dollars (REUTERS/Dado Ruvic)

Many challenges await the Argentine economy in the year that has just begun. However, the chronic shortage of dollars or its reverse, the overabundance of pesos, is the factor that manifests itself most immediately in the prices of the various currencies; This, in turn, is a symptom of the multiple underlying imbalances. Throughout January, alternative exchange rates experienced a variation of around 10% in the case of informals and 8% in the case of financials.

The drought is already hitting the economy hard: incomes and exports have fallen

The January data shows a raw impact on the main variables, including the return of the trade deficit. Public spending soared in January, rising 111%, more than 10 points above inflation

Official data for January anticipates the effects of the drought on economic activity and public accounts Photo: Andina
Official data for January anticipates the effects of the drought on economic activity and public accounts Photo: Andina

The impact of the drought has already started to hit the economy, even harder and sooner than expected. The recent official figures published yesterday reflect a severe blow to the collection in January and also to the level of imports, which should not be reversed in the following months. The data reveals that the problem Argentina faces in 2023 goes far beyond difficulties in maintaining the level of reserves and the accumulation commitment in the agreement with the IMF.

After several days of steep declines, dollar bonds rose in price

Securities under foreign law have the greatest impact on country risk, which has fallen by 56 points

REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/Illustration/Dossier
REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/Illustration/Dossier

It was a cautious day and the highlight was the rebound in debt bonds after several rounds of steep declines. The economic scenario did not accompany this recovery. Public spending in the non-financial sector was the highest in 8 years in January. The most serious thing is that the first month of the year, seasonally, is the one with the best performance of this variable. For the government, it was a blow because it had promised to cut public spending and the effort seemed futile.

The dollar remains at 377 pesos

The price of dollar on the parallel market, it was real estate yesterday Wednesday, at $377 for sale, the same value as on Friday 17th and also on February 10th. So far, in the second month of the year, the free dollar cut four pesos.

With a dollar wholesaler which gained 1.76 pesos to 194.95 dollars, the exchange difference was reduced to 93.4%. However, so far in 2023, the official exchange rate is the one that increases the most, 10%, compared to a “blue”, which advances by 9%, compared to 346 dollars at the end of 2022.

The dollar counted with liquidation dropped a peso to $369 while the MEP increased by two pesos to 359 pesos.

He central bank cuts an 18-day streak of sales and ends with a positive net balance of $3 million in the market.

He S&P Merval it fell by 1.7% while the country risk remained virtually unchanged at 2,086 basis points.

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