:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/OY3OERWAENGG7PN7OCHCWRHMYQ.jpg "Colombia's economic growth in 2022 reflects economic slowdown 1")
The National Administrative Department of Statistics (Danish) unveiled on Economy Tracking Index (ISE) in which he showed Colombia’s economic activity figures for the fourth quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter, it increased by 2.9%, an indicator well below what analysts in general had, which was around 3.8%. downturn in the economy during the latter part of last year.
Colombia’s economy closed below expectations in 2022
Annual growth was 7.5%; April and May were the most productive months. Growth in December was 1.3%, showing signs of slowing, although better pre-pandemic numbers are reflected
In fact, the Dane reviewed all the previous quarters and showed that the slowdown in the economy started from the third quarter of 2022.
Thus, the economy as a whole experienced favorable growth (7.5%), but well below that Bank of the Republic and analysts in general, which was higher by half a percentage point (8%). Moreover, Dane reported that it was only in December that the convergence of economic activity, instead of growing 2.5%, as expected, increased by 1.3%.
Colombia’s economic growth in 2022 would have been close to 8%
In the absence of confirmation of the ISE figure by DANE, monetary authorities and the national government consider that the year-end records would show signs of slowing down
According to Scotiabank Chief Economist Colpatria, Sergio OlarteAll this suggests that the household consumptionby a inflation quite high and the need for Bank of the Republic to raise their interest rates (12.75%), made demand for goods and services slow down much faster than previously thought.
“This way what we are seeing is that the economy is starting the year weak and furthermore we can expect this downturn to continue as inflation in the economy is not coming down not and it is expected that this indicator will not fall to single digits, Approximately, until October of this year and the interest rates of the Banco de la República will not be able to fall either”, noted Olarte.
By sectors, he assured that what we see is that the trade deteriorates, while manufacturing didn’t do well in the fourth half of last year either and the farming and mining they couldn’t pick up.
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Fenalco warned that these events will surely have a strong impact on Colombia’s inflation rate, which is already very high.
“It’s a bad step for him. job. Certainly, employment, as we saw in December, has continued and will continue to deteriorate. For this year we see growth of 1% and 1.5% with high inflation rates and with inflation not ending below 9%,” said Scotiabank Chief Economist Colpatria .
Precisely on trade, the president of the National Federation of Traders (Fenalco), Jaime Cabalassured that the figures that Dane showed on trade show two realities: one, of the great behavior that trade had throughout 2022 when it increased by 10.8%, which made it the one of the best markers of the Colombian economy.
In contrast, it shows results from December, when trading had already fallen 1.8% and showed the tendency to slow down activity in this regard.
He indicated that eleven of the nineteen items who is investigating the Dane had negative behavioramong which stands out the technology, sound and televisions with the biggest fall. Likewise, clothes, toiletriesamong others.
“Without a doubt, not having celebrated Day without VAT in December, it has to do with the behavior that the Dane displays on this occasion, ”said the president of Fenalco.
For her part, the President of the American-Colombian Chamber of Commerce (AmCham Colombia), Maria Claudia Lacouturenoted that although the economy grew appreciably by 7.5% in 2022, this was lower than the 11% in 2021, the first year of the post-pandemic covid-19.
“It’s positive, however, it needs to be framed within a bearish outlook and low optimism about the evolution of the Colombian economy for the coming months, with inflation rising, albeit under control, interest rates high interest and currency instability,” he said.
He pointed out that in addition to this are the effects of the tax reform already in force and the resulting increase in production costs. Likewise, that there also persists a degree of uncertainty due to the impact of reforms of the work, health and pension systems because it is very likely that they result in a heavier tax burden for the entrepreneurial fabric.
“Today, a high degree of wisdom and consensus between the public and private sectors is needed to sustain job creation and quickly control inflation,” he said.
Lacouture also stressed that the Colombian economy will remain stable if it is possible to have a moderate consumption that meets the needs of families and enables business development.