:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/WBKBGI27IVEF5A4XDVXLK7JVKQ.png "Colombia could enter an economic recession, according to Oxford Economics")
In the business Economy of Oxford presented a projection on the economy Latin America in 2023. According to his calculations, there will be a general recession, but, in certain countries, in the event of Colombiathe development figures of the Gross domestic product would have a negative balance. Slowing consumption and rising interest rates are responsible for the outlook, according to the study.
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The impact would be reflected in the Gross domestic product, which according to the firm, would have already experienced a considerable contraction during the first quarter. This reduction would be felt throughout the year by countries such as Colombia, Argentina and Chile, which would close with negative figures. Others such as Mexico, Brazil and Peru would maintain a positive balance, mainly the latter would have the highest growth in the region, at least over the next two years.
“Data released this week confirmed our view that Latin America is rapidly approaching a synchronized recession after most economies overheated in early 2022 (…) Based solely on the effect of drag, most countries could experience a contraction in GDP in the first quarter. We believe that the ongoing correction is driven by internal factors,” detailed Oxford Economics.
According to the estimates: Colombia would end the year with -1.2% of GDP, Chile with -1% and Argentina with -0.9%. The regional average would be higher than 0.2%; above this margin will be Brazil with 0.4%, Mexico with 0.8% and Peru with 2.5%.
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quickly to Colombia and Mexico, the central banks would maintain their intention to raise key rates, in the case of the former, they believe that the rise in interest is about 50 basis points (approximately), while for the second it would be 25.
The figures left in January 2023 were not the most satisfactory for analysts. There inflation it is above historical records, no decline in interest rates is observed and international factors continue to pressure the situation to deteriorate.
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In this context, the technical team of the Bank of the Republic again readjusted its projections for 2023, revealing that economic growth will be almost zero, only 0.2%, a concept marked out by inflation figures:
“The technical team is cautious and captures downside risk in a way that may be more conservative or bearish than other analysts. I dare say I hope the technical team is wrong and that at the end of the year, we will be able to have a much higher growth, close to that proposed by the Ministry of Finance or other analysts, ”explained the managing director of the issuer. Leonard Villar.
What is remarkable is that the numbers continue to be positive, which ensures that there will be no recession, however, the issues that impact these numbers must be addressed in order for the effects to be minimal.
The president of the American-Colombian Chamber of Commerce (Amcham), referred to this Maria Claudia Lacouturewho pointed out that the growth figure at the end of 2022 is already lower than that of 2021:
“It is a positive result, however, it must be framed in a downward perspective, according to the analyzes of international financial organizations and the low optimism about the evolution of the Colombian economy for the coming months, with a high inflation, although under control, high interest rates and exchange rate instability, in addition to the effects of the ongoing tax reform and the resulting increase in production costs”.