Argentina’s trade balance reportedly recorded a surplus of $350 million in January

By Hernan Nessi

BUENOS AIRES, Feb 17 (Reuters) – Argentina’s Comercial Exchange (ICA) reportedly reached a positive balance of $350 million in the first month of 2023, after registering $1,102 million in December, according to the median of a survey from Reuters.

Projections from nine local and foreign analysts also reflected an average surplus of $321 million for the CIA in January.

“We estimate that the surplus has been reduced to $350 million, affected by the decline in agricultural exports following the drought, although supported by the continued decline in imports,” said Isaías Marini, economist at Econviews.

The South American nation, the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, has been dealing with a major drought that has affected crops for local producers for months now.

The wide disparity between analysts’ estimates ranged from a maximum deficit of $327 million to a maximum positive balance of $1,300 million for the CIA in the first month of 2023.

According to official data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), the South American country reached a trade surplus of $6,923 million in 2022, compared to $14,751 million recorded the previous year.

“The outlook for the coming months is worrying as crop projections continue to deteriorate due to lack of rain, and the government does not have much room to push imports without further cooling the economy,” he said. Marini added.

And he noted that “however, with a central bank without reserves, we believe the government will eventually adjust (foreign exchange) stocks even more and implement temporary exchange systems such as the soy dollar.”

Argentina implemented in September and December 2022 an increase in the income of its currencies by offering a differentiated exchange rate to encourage the liquidation of soybean producers.

INDEC, according to its release schedule, will release official January trade balance data next Wednesday afternoon.

(Reporting by Hernán Nessi; Editing by Jorge Otaola)