By Jorge Otaola
BUENOS AIRES, March 10 (Reuters) – The board of directors of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) will ratify its benchmark rate of 75% per annum next week amid strong inflationary pressures, Reuters told Friday. an adviser of the monetary entity knowingly. the object.
That way, the parent bank will maintain the economy’s core performance for the sixth consecutive month, as private analysts predict retail prices will rise nearly 100% in 2023.
“We are in a crucial month, despite the fact that the exchange (sovereign debt) relieves financial pressures. The current TEA of 107% (monthly effective rate, equivalent to 75% nominal annual) still holds the rate positively against the inflation,” the source replied on condition of anonymity.
“If inflation continues to be under pressure, in April it could be increased (the rate) to help cool the economy, but that’s a week-by-week analysis,” he said.
No official spokesperson immediately responded to a query from Reuters.
The BCRA last raised the “Leliq” reference rate last September to 75% per annum, a trend that was up monthly from the 38% in effect in January 2022.
“I also believe that the central bank would be inclined to maintain the reference rate in March, taking advantage of the calm of the exchange rate, but perhaps in the future it will resume the readjustment (bullish) if inflation continues to decline. ‘accelerate,’ said economist Gustavo. Ber.
The government will report next Tuesday on February inflation, which would be around 6% as in January, after the 94.8% accumulated during the year 2022.
BCRA officials closely monitor the behavior of monthly underlying inflation, as it does not take into account the volatility of goods and services which exhibit seasonal behavior.
Based on the latest Monthly Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the central bank itself, this core inflation is forecast at 6% for February and March, falling to 5.6% for next June. .
Argentina will hold presidential elections towards the end of the year, amid a complex scenario of high inflation, a shortage of foreign currency and a slowing economy, further complicated by a historic drought affecting the agricultural sector. . (Reporting by Jorge Otaola; Editing by Nicolás Misculin)