5 ways the war in Ukraine changed the world

LONDON (AP) — The war has been a disaster for Ukraine and a crisis for the entire planet. The world has been a more unstable and terrifying place since Russia invaded its neighbor on February 24, 2022.

A year later, thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed and countless buildings have been destroyed. Soldiers killed or wounded on both sides number in the tens of thousands. Beyond Ukraine’s borders, the invasion has shattered European security, reshaped relations between countries and shaken the interconnected global economy.

Here are five ways war has changed the world:

THE RETURN OF WAR IN EUROPE

Three months before the invasion, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson scoffed at the idea that the British military needed more heavy weaponry. “The old ideas of big tank battles on European soil,” he said, “are outdated.”

Now Johnson is urging Britain to send more tanks to help Ukraine fend off Russian forces.

Despite the role played by new technologies such as satellites and drones, this conflict of the 21st century resembles in many respects that of the 20th. The fighting in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region is brutal combat marked by mud, trenches and bloody infantry attacks reminiscent of World War I.

The conflict sparked a new arms race that some analysts liken to the buildup of the 1930s before World War II. Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands of recruits and aims to increase its army from 1 million to 1.5 million men. France plans to increase its military spending by a third by 2030, while Germany has dropped its longstanding ban on arms sales to conflict zones and sent missiles and tanks to the ‘Ukraine.

Before the war, many observers assumed that military forces would turn to more advanced technology and cyber warfare and depend less on tanks or artillery, said Patrick Bury, professor of security at the University of Bath.

But in Ukraine, weapons and ammunition are the priority.

“For the moment at least, this proves that in Ukraine, conventional state-versus-state warfare is back,” Bury said.

TESTED AND STRENGTHENED PARTNERSHIPS

Russian President Vladimir Putin hoped the invasion would divide the West and weaken NATO. Instead, the military alliance was strengthened. The group formed to take on the Soviet Union has found a new resolve and has two new challengers in Finland and Sweden, who have abandoned decades of non-alignment and asked to join NATO to protect themselves against Russia.

The 27-nation European Union imposed tough sanctions on Russia and sent billions of euros to Ukraine. The war has put Brexit disputes into perspective and improved diplomatic relations between the bloc and its former member, Britain.

“The EU imposes sanctions, quite serious sanctions, as it should. The United States has returned to Europe with a vengeance in a way we never thought would happen again,” said defense analyst Michael Clarke, former director of the Royal United Services think tank.

NATO member states have brought billions of dollars worth of equipment and weapons to Ukraine. The alliance has strengthened its eastern flank, and countries closest to Ukraine and Russia, such as Poland and the Baltics, have conquered more reluctant NATO and European Union allies, displacing potentially the center of power in eastern Europe. .

There are a few cracks in this unit. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Putin’s closest ally in the EU, campaigned against sanctions on Moscow, refused to send weapons to Ukraine and withheld a block aid package for Kyiv.

Western unity will come under increasing pressure as the conflict drags on.

“Russia is preparing for a long war,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the end of 2022, while asserting that the alliance was also ready for “the long term”.

A NEW IRON CURTAIN

The war has made Russia a pariah in the West. Its oligarchs have been punished and their businesses banned, and international brands like McDonald’s or Ikea have disappeared from the country’s streets.

However, Moscow has not been left without friends either. Russia has tightened economic ties with China, although Beijing is keeping its distance from the fighting and has so far sent no weapons. The United States recently expressed concern that this could change.

China is closely watching a conflict that could encourage or discourage Beijing from trying to reclaim self-governing Taiwan by force.

Putin has strengthened his military ties with North Korea and Iran, two countries isolated from the international community, and Tehran supplies drones that Russia uses against Ukrainian infrastructure.

Moscow continues to gain influence in Africa and the Middle East through its economic and military power. The Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary company, has become more powerful in the conflicts from Donbass to the Sahel.

Echoing the Cold War, the world is divided into two camps and many countries, like populous India, are reserving their bets to see who will emerge victorious.

The conflict has driven a wedge between the “liberal US-led international order” on one side and angry Russia and an increasingly strong and assertive China on the other, said Professor Tracey German. in Conflict and Security at King’s College London.

A BROKEN AND TRANSFORMED ECONOMY

The economic impact of the war was felt from cold houses in Europe to markets in Africa.

Before the war, European Union nations imported nearly half of their natural gas and a third of their crude from Russia. The invasion and retaliatory sanctions against Russia dealt a blow to energy prices not seen since the 1970s.

The war has upended a global trade that had yet to recover from the pandemic. Food prices have soared as Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat and sunflower oil, and Russia is the world’s largest fertilizer producer.

Some grain ships have continued to leave Ukraine under a shaky UN-brokered deal and prices have fallen from record highs. But food remains a geopolitical currency. Russia has tried to blame the West for the high prices, while Ukraine and its allies accuse Russia of weaponizing the famine.

Like the pandemic, the war “has put a lot of emphasis on the fragility” of an interconnected world, German explained, and the full economic impact of the conflict is still unknown.

The war also undermined efforts to combat climate change and boosted Europe’s consumption of coal, a highly polluting fuel. However, the rapid abandonment of Russian oil and gas in Europe could accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources faster than the countless warnings about the danger of global warming. The International Energy Agency has estimated that the world will increase its renewable energy generation capacity as much over the next five years as it has over the previous 20.

A NEW ERA OF UNCERTAINTY

The conflict is a stark reminder that people have little control over the course of history. No one is clearer than the 8 million Ukrainians who have been forced to leave their homes in search of a new life in cities inside and outside Europe.

For millions of people less directly affected, the abrupt breakdown of peace in Europe has brought anxiety and uncertainty.

Veiled threats from Putin about the use of atomic weapons if the conflict escalates have revived fears of nuclear war, forgotten since the Cold War. Fighting around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant has raised fears of a new Chernobyl.

But the conflict has also reminded us that sometimes individual human actions make the difference. Clarke, the defense analyst, said there was such a moment the day after the invasion, when Zelenskyy filmed himself outside in Kyiv and vowed not to leave town.

“It was crucial to show that Kyiv would fight,” Clarke said. “And with that, of course, the United States, Joe Biden, joined us. If those two things hadn’t happened, the Zelenskyy decision and after Biden, the Russians would have won.”

“This Zelenskyy moment will go down in history as very, very important.”