The market was amazed because the Supervielle bank share shot up 65% and reached USD 3.65, but in 2017 it was worth USD 32

The market was amazed because the Supervielle bank share shot up 65% and reached USD 3.65, but in 2017 it was worth USD 32

With the decline in alternative dollars, those who renewed guarantees for another seven days that expired yesterday, added gains in dollars of more than 2%, which means that in 8 days they have accumulated income for almost 6% in dollars. This movement in short-term pesos is replicated in fixed terms at 30 days at a fixed rate and much more in indexed placements that have higher yields because they adjust with an inflation of 4 points per month, against a yield of placements at 30 days of 3% per month. The problem is that indexed fixed terms must be immobilized for 90 days. But there is investment in bonds that adjust for CER, which can be entered and exited at any time. That is why they are so in demand. Indexed securities rose 0.15% in pesos and the version listed in dollars, increased 1.40% due to the fall in the currency.

Anyway, the carry trade, still valid. The mechanism of operating in pesos to, later, take the profits and return to the dollar, is used more and more. As long as crop dollars escaping official control feed the market, the future of the currency is doomed. Many attribute the sale of dollars to having to face the wealth tax or to pay advances on other charges, if that were the case, the cost of the cable dollar would have risen. But the reality that the great feeder of the exchange market is the cables that come from Chile and Paraguay. This oversupply caused the “blue” or free dollar to drop from $ 1 to $ 148.

The wheel of the alternative dollars did not have intervention of the Central Bank, but it was moved. The absence of official authority has been repeated for four wheels. At one point, the AL30C, which is the bond they use to intervene in the market, was higher than the GD30, the bond of operators that escapes the regulations imposed by the Central Bank. It is the first time since the stocks tightened that the official bond exceeds the GD30 in value. The unfortunate thing is that the equalization was produced by the collapse of both titles.

Banco Supervielle's share in yesterday's session

Banco Supervielle’s share in yesterday’s session
 

The MEP dollar, which traded USD 23.8 million, and traded at $ 138 when the relationship between the AL30 bond and the GD30 was reversed and the dollar was more expensive in the securities that the Central uses to regulate the market. This is unusual, because the AL30 has space and restrictions to be purchased. When the abnormality was over, the price of the MEP dollar began to rebound and closed at $ 141.50, $ 3 below the previous day. In the controlled wheel, the MEP fell $ 1.7 (-1.2%) to $ 141.77. It is unusual that the MEP dollar is the same in both markets.

The cash settlement with a high amount of operations of 83.6 million yielded $ 2.11 (-1.4%) to $ 145.82. In the free square, the currency traded at $ 145.30. It fell stronger than in the official square, since the fall was $ 3.20 compared to the wheel on Wednesday. It is convenient to place the dollars abroad in the free space, since in the official one it is more expensive. Argentina urgently needs a translator because regulations have disrupted the laws of the economy.

In the wholesale plaza, the Central Bank resumed the devaluation rhythm and the dollar increased 11 cents to $ 89.06. The businesses totaled USD 208 million, but the Central Bank did not buy dollars.

Reserves, in these circumstances, suffered from the decline in gold, which was very strong in the last few wheels and lost USD 91 million and remained at 39,310 million.

Bonds with their low prices abroad, especially those with a shorter tranche that come to yield 19% in dollars, kept the country risk high at 1,476 basis points. There are securities that have lost 30% of their value since the country came out of default and this is the other side of the decline in the dollar. It is the mirror that says that the current fall in the currency is a bubble, that there are no economic indicators to support the move beyond the fortune of having overcome a drought with soybeans above $ 500 per ton.

The shares closed lower. The Stock Exchange traded a volume that more than doubled the usual: $ 2,598 million. It surpassed what was traded in ADR’s – certificates of holdings of shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange – which amounted to just $ 1,587 million. This is explained because the Supervielle bench (+ 7.11%) in an unexpected movement, it negotiated $ 1,035 million, almost 90% of its capital. The role in the best moment of the wheel was 52% up. The amount of business is reminiscent of the massive purchases by small investors that were made on Wall Street to destabilize the short sellers. But the Merval, despite this movement, fell 1.07% and it was because it lacked the traction of highly weighted papers such as YPF that it suffered a profit taking that led it to lose 5.12%.

The Argentine ADRs had an unfavorable wheel despite the Supervielle improvement of 10.6%. In the United States, where the movement that spread to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange began, Supervielle was 65% higher. But this could be done with a stock that closed at $ 2.40 after hitting a high of $ 3.65. In 2017, the bank’s stock traded in New York at USD 32 and now the euphoria of exceeding $ 3 is celebrated. To go back to 2017, Supervielle should go up 1,000%.

For today another round favorable to pesos is expected because investments in local currencies and the sale of currencies will continue. There may be some bounce, but it will not take away the gains of up to 6% in dollars that were achieved in the last 8 days.

Ben Oakley
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