The blue dollar jumped sharply daily, after falling in two of the last three weeks.
The blue dollar recorded its highest increase since the post-election day and closed at $950 for sale. This illegal exchange rate had fallen in two of the last three weeks and accumulated a drop of $150 since its nominal record of $1,100, recorded last October 23.
After heavy raids in cuevas, the blue dollar had closed at $900 in the run-up to the general elections. However, on the Monday after the elections, it reached its nominal historical maximum at $1,100.
This Thursday, the parallel dollar jumped by $60 and ended at $900 for purchase and $950 for sale, according to a survey carried out by Ámbito in the caves of the City. Thus, the gap with the official dollar reached 171.5%.
Rise of the blue dollar: previous calm and recovery
Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de Cambio, commented to Ámbito that, in part, the rise of the blue dollar may be the result of a higher level of activity, after previous days with little business. He also said that the drop could be due to the need for pesos of those overbought investors who had to face expenses.
“I believe that the market is recovering from the previous falls and is again approaching levels more similar to those prior to the general elections. However, one should never draw conclusions for a couple of days, the trend is seen with a somewhat longer horizon”, he added.
Why the blue dollar rises: electoral expectations
One of the main phenomena to take into account when analyzing the current scenario is the political situation, the proximity of the ballot. In the run-up, expectations are being organized around the polls.
“The last polls show a week in which Javier Milei (candidate for president of La Libertad Avanza) was a little stronger and give him a higher probability of being president. As a consequence, dollarization is reactivated, because the liberal candidate did not abandon this idea, nor the idea of closing the Central Bank”, explained Amilcar Collante, economist at Cesur, to Ámbito.
BCRA reserves: does it have an impact on the blue dollar?
On the other hand, Collante clarified that the level of BCRA reserves continues to fall and that is another factor that may drive the rise of the illegal dollar.
“If we calculate the value of the convertibility dollar, it is currently exceeding $1,400 per dollar. That tells you that the dollar has upward trajectory considering that it is around $950,” Collante added.