Russian gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.4% in the first half compared to the same period a year earlier, due to unprecedented Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its military intervention in Ukraine, according to preliminary estimates. from the federal statistical agency, Rosstat.
The Russian economy grew by 3.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, but between April and June it fell by 4%.
Rosstat’s calculations are slightly better than the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, which predicted a decline of 0.5% of GDP between January and June.
If the GDP also contracted in the third quarter, the Russian economy would enter a recession, although this, according to government projections, would be less acute than initially forecast.
Two weeks ago, the Executive led by Mijaíl Mishustin presented a draft with new macroeconomic forecasts to the budget commission in which he lowered the decline from 7.8%, predicted in May for the year as a whole, to 4.2%.
The Central Bank of Russia believes that the contraction will be between 4% and 6%.
However, this week Russia’s first deputy prime minister, Andréi Belousov, assured that the decline in GDP will remain below 3% at the end of the year.