KEY POINTS OPENING IBEX 35:
- Investors dare to continue the purchases, despite the nerves raised by the liquidation of the Archegos fund and the new increase in the yield of the bonds.
- Investors prefer to continue to focus on advancing the vaccination campaign, although the rotation of assets towards more defensive sectors continues.
- The US dollar gives a break to the currencies most linked to the economic cycle, but maintains its iron mark on the euro , with the EUR / USD at a four-month low.
World stock markets still dare to rise despite the fact that the yield curve for US bonds begins to steep again, for fear that the stimulus programs of the president of the United States, Joe Biden, will force the US Treasury to issue huge amounts of public debt.
There is also a notable degree of concern in the market over the liquidation of the hedge fund Archegos Capital Management. The main strategy of this family investment platform was to adopt short positions in Chinese technology companies listed in the United States and, after not being able to hedge their positions after margin calls, investment banks began to sell their positions en bloc.
It was potentially more damaging for the market not to know why these strong corrections were taking place in stocks such as Viacom, Tencent or Baidu, than to know what happened, which is why tempers have calmed down. However, now that the situation is known, the growing concern is to know how much the final bill of this liquidation will amount to investment banks and if this phenomenon could be repeated with other funds.
Beyond this situation, optimism around vaccines continues to be the great factor that moves the markets and allows purchases to continue, but until we start the month of April and the rebalancing of portfolios of the At the end of each quarter, we will not have a clearer idea of the general market trend.
What we can see is that there is still a notable rotation from those known as growth stocks to those considered valuable, as evidenced by last night’s mixed closing on the New York Stock Exchange, with a notable step back Russell 2000 Small Business
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This morning, the Asian stock markets end the session with a positive tone, and the greater appetite for risk is also replicated at the opening in Europe, with all the large indices in green with an hour to go before the initial bell.
In the currency market, the US dollar gives off some reel to the British pound and ocean currencies, but maintains a tight grip on the euro. In fact, the EUR / USD pair faces the start of the European session at four-month lows (see technical analysis below).
For their part, raw materials fail to replicate the rises seen in the stock markets and only silver and palladium manage to move positively at this time. The price of gold manages to lower the pressure seen in the last hours at the key level of 1700 dollars per ounce, while copper does the same around 4 dollars per pound.
Similarly, the price of oil futures continues to be penalized by the unblocking of the Suez Canal, but the falls remain very contained, since the market focuses its attention on the meeting that will be held by OPEC + and in which it seems that there is an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to extend the cuts at least until May.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35
The Ibex 35 faces the day well settled on the 8,500 points, although without daring to advance to the 8,550 that have resisted it since last March 19. If it manages to overcome them, the bulls could take this move as an invitation to continue rising to 8,575 and, from there, continue to 8,600.
At the bottom, the selective has the support of 8520 points and the support of its pivot point of the day, at 8512, to avoid a possible setback to the aforementioned 8500 points, which would also have a second chance to avoid moving away of this brand in the 8480.
DAX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For its part, the German Dax 30 this morning left a new all-time high at 14,900 and between the fetish goal of 15,000 points, only the intraday resistance of 14,944 points would already interpose above.
On the sales side, the 14,800 level would be defended by the technical reference of 14,856 points, in addition to the pivot point of the session, located at 14,833. As in the case of the Ibex, the first Support for the day would appear very close to the psychological mark, at 14,772.
EUR / USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
In the Forex market, the EUR / USD renews its four-month minimum before the European opening, at 1.1760 dollars per euro, although it does not dare, for the moment, to go further, since, below at this mark, the pair offers a very clear path to 1.17 and then a free fall to 1.16.
As the main references to avoid this setback, the pair could count on the support of the intraday resistances of 1, 1753, 1.1740 and 1.1719 dollars per euro. On the contrary, if the pair manages to reverse this situation, the first barrier above would be found at its pivot point of the day (1.1775), in addition to the resistance of 1.1787, which closes the way back to the 1.18.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY’S AGENDA
- 08 : 45 – Eurozone – Consumer Confidence France.
- 09:00 – Eurozone – CPI and Spanish retail sales.
- 11:00 – Eurozone – Business and consumer confidence in the eurozone.
- 14:00 – Eurozone – German CPI.
- 3:00 pm – United States – Case-Shiller Index of House Prices.
- 1 6 : 0 0 – United States – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence.
- 22:30 – Oil – API weekly report on the evolution of reserves in the United States.
- 23:00 – Mexico – Fiscal balance.
- 01:50 – Japan – Industrial production.
- 02:00 – New Zealand – ANZ Business Confidence Index.
- 02:30 – Australia – Building permits.
- 03:00 – China – PMI for the month of March.