Dollar Today: the Free Price Dropped to 5, in a Day Without Sales for the Bcra in the Wholesale Market

Dollar Today: the Free Price Dropped to $185, in a Day Without Sales for the Bcra in the Wholesale Market

The price of the “blue” dollar fell one peso and the exchange gap with the wholesale dollar reached 87%

The free dollar ended up trading down one peso this Monday, to $ 185 for sale in the reduced parallel market. In 2021 it amounts to 19 pesos or 11.4 percent.

In the wholesale market , where the Central Bank intervenes with liquidity regulation operations, the bill rose seven cents, to $ 98.86 , with an exchange gap of 87.1% with respect to the “blue” dollar.

When observing what happened in 2021, inflation accumulated 35%, while the official exchange rate rose 17.5%, that is, half that of the CPI rate measured by INDEC, from $ 84.15 at the close of 2020.

“The opinion that prevails in the usual private market sources indicates that the BCRA would have ended the day with a favorable balance for its intervention, without quantifying amounts so far,” said Gustavo Quintana , agent of PR Corredores de Cambio.

The amount traded in the spot segment reached 450.7 million dollars.

Throughout the past week, the Central Bank accumulated net sales of USD 303 million due to its participation in the spot market. It should be remembered that net sales of USD 952 million were recorded in September , the first negative record for official intervention in the market since October last year.

The September-November quarter is for seasonal reasons a negative period for the Central’s reserves, since the entity is forced to balance the wholesale supply in a period of decline in the liquidation of agricultural exports, between the thick harvest of corn and soybeans – concentrated in the second quarter-, and the fine of the wheat that is activated in the summer.

“At the exchange rate level, the resumption of sales by the BCRA accentuates the concerns of operators regarding the dynamics of net reserves, especially when in the coming months seasonality and the electoral stage will continue to be serious challenges,” stressed the economist Gustavo Ber .

“Simultaneously, from the monetary front, the mountain of pesos -to finance the fiscal deficit- continues to rise and thus the search for coverage, by anticipating that the divergence between pesos and dollars is risky and unsustainable,” added the head of the Ber study.

International reserves decreased USD 283 million in the last week and ended at 42,848 million dollars.

In its first tender for securities in pesos in October, the Ministry of Economy will seek to raise a minimum of $ 40,000 million through the placement of three discounted bills (Lede), a Bill adjusted by CER (Lecer) and a dollar linked bond . But in addition, the Government will seek to exchange the dollar linked bond that expires in November (T2V1D) , with the aim of postponing maturities for the next two years.

The BCRA keeps the official dollar stabilized before the elections, but sacrifices reserves to compensate for the drop in export settlements

From Research for Traders they detailed that “the Treasury will offer to exchange dollar linked Treasury Bonds plus a rate of 0.1% due on November 30 (T2V1D) -that will be taken at a technical value of USD 1,000.35 for every 1,000 nominal -, for a basket made up of 30% of the dollar linked Treasury Bond plus a rate of 0.2% maturing on November 30, 2022 (T2V2D), at a price of USD 1,042.75 per 1,000 nominal, and for another 70% of the dollar linked Treasury Bond plus a rate of 0.3% maturing on April 28, 2023 (TV23D), at a price of USD 999.42 per 1,000 nominal ”.

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