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The third wave of COVID-19 in Spain is already a reality and, therefore, all the autonomous communities have already taken tougher measures to stop the spread of infections. Some numbers of infected that have not stopped rising throughout the week, reaching a new record for the entire pandemic in our country: this past Wednesday they notified up to 41,576 new positives, a figure that had not been reached even last March, when home confinement was decreed throughout the country, along with the state of alarm.
Despite these worrisome numbers, the Government and Health admit that a confinement like the one in March is not necessary, at least for the moment and taking into account the tough measures that the communities have been implementing last week. However, hospital occupancy continues to worry about an upward trend, especially the ICU, which has fewer and fewer beds.
And, despite the new restrictions this January, and still suffering the consequences of Christmas, the Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) -a reference center in the coronavirus pandemic- estimates that It will not be until the end of the month, around January 29, when we can see a turning point in the contagions of this third wave of pandemic that many experts have warned of even before the arrival of the Christmas holidays.
Hospital pressure and deaths
According to the study of predictive models of the IHME, it indicates that the upward trend of the incidence accumulated in a large part of Spain suggests that the turning point in the occupation and hospital pressure will arrive at the end of January, exactly on January 29. However -and given the average times of this virus-, mortality will not peak until a few weeks later, around February 15, to begin to lower their numbers in the following weeks.
However, the same study indicates that Madrid will experience its peak in hospital pressure later, in mid-February, Unlike the second wave, when it fell, it occurred earlier than in other communities. In turn, the decline in the death curve will occur at the same point as nationally, although not so pronounced.
Melissa Galbraith is the World News reporter for Globe Live Media. She covers all the major events happening around the World. From Europe to Americas, from Asia to Antarctica, Melissa covers it all. Never miss another Major World Event by bookmarking her author page right here.