Ukraine’s military intelligence chief said a “decisive battle” was brewing, which could be the last before the end of the war.

The Chief of Military Intelligence Ukrainethe major general Kyrylo Budanovsaid that at the end of the boreal spring, Russia will lack “military tools” to achieve its goals of the invasion of Ukraine, so a key battle which could mark the end of the war.

Budanov’s prediction comes amid considerable uncertainty about what the next phase of the war will look like, now in its second year. For weeks, Ukrainian officials had indicated that Russia was planning a major new offensive to coincide with the first anniversary of its February 24 invasion of Ukraine. However, a major new offensive has yet to materialize.

According to Budanov,Russia has wasted huge amounts of human resources, weapons and equipment. Its economy and production cannot cover these losses, it has changed its military chain of command”.

“If the Russian army does not achieve its goals this spring, it will run out of military tools“, he said in an interview with USA today.

In this context, he considered that Ukraine and Russia will fight “a decisive battle this spring, and this battle will be the last before the end of this war”.

This contradicts the opinion of military experts on both sides, who warned that they had to be prepared for a long fight.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine belied many expectations, not to mention predictions. Yet it can be said with certainty: we are far from the end of this war,” said Rajan Menon and Benjamin H. Friedman of the Washington-based defense think tank Defense Priorities.

But Budanov seems to agree with the widely held view among independent military analysts that Russia currently lacks ammunition, military supplies and sufficient numbers of trained, organized and motivated soldiers to make significant gains against the Ukrainian defensive lines in eastern Ukraine, where the fighting is more intense.

“They demonstrate by all means that they are prepared for it, “a war for decades”, but in reality their means are quite limited. Both in time and in volume. And they know it very well,” Budanov said in another interview with Voice of America.

He warned that in the coming months the offensive will intensify. “They will be quite active. They will decide what happens next,” he repeated. But he stressed that Russia is currently unprepared for a long-term war due to its limited resources.

In late December, the Pentagon estimated that the Russian military would likely run out of its newest ammunition stockpiles by early 2023, forcing it to draw on stocks produced during the Cold War. These reserves are less reliable and potentially degraded.

This is why the United States warned that China would consider supplying weapons to Vladimir Putin, which would change the game board of war.

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